SunSirs: China PET Bottle Chip Prices Fell Weakly in August and Then Rebounded

According to the price data from SunSirs, as of August 28th, the average selling price of PET is 5,980 RMB/ton, with weak performance in the first and middle of the year: the market performance is weak, and prices are under pressure to decline. In the latter half of the year, the decline stopped and stabilized, with a slight rebound: as the PTA raw material market was boosted by news of unexpected equipment maintenance, cost support increased, and bottle prices tentatively rose. However, the downstream has limited acceptance of high prices and weak willingness to chase after them, resulting in limited price increases and an overall volatile trend.

Cost side: Due to the rebound in crude oil prices in some parts of August, the cost side of PET bottle chips has been supported. Although factors such as OPEC+ production expectations have led to an overall decline in crude oil prices, fluctuations in crude oil prices will drive changes in upstream raw material prices, which in turn will affect the cost of PET bottle chips and provide some support for prices. And the early aggregation cost has decreased, and the bottle processing fee has been repaired. Although the production gross profit is still negative, the factory has a strong willingness to raise prices, which has a bottom line effect on prices.

The supply side has contracted: Faced with demand pressure and low profits, mainstream manufacturers such as Sanfangxiang, China Resources, Yisheng, and Wankai have maintained their production reduction strategies. This has maintained the weekly operating rate of the industry at 70.9%, controlled the supply to a certain extent, and provided bottom support for processing fees and prices.

Demand side: August is the peak season for soft drink consumption, which has a certain driving force on the demand for PET bottle chips. At the same time, large factories have reduced production of bottle cutting equipment, slowly reducing inventory, maintaining a weekly operating rate of 70.9%, and stabilizing the available days of inventory in the factory, resulting in a relative decrease in market supply and supporting processing fees, which to some extent reflects price advantages. Hold on.

Inventory pressure remains: Despite production reduction measures, the available days of inventory in the PET bottle chip factory remain at a relatively high level of 16.97 days. The sustained suppression of price rebound by high inventory indicates that the market supply-demand balance still needs time to improve.

Overall, looking ahead to September and the short term, the PET bottle chip market is expected to continue its volatile pattern, and is expected to be affected by both the cost and supply sides, showing a fluctuating upward trend. There is some support on the cost side, and the reduction in production by major factories continues to deplete inventory, with an expected price range of 5,900-6,050 RMB/ton.

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