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SunSirs: In May, the Ethylene External Market Continued to Rise

May 29 2020 14:20:16     SunSirs (John)

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the recent price of ethylene external disks has risen. The average ethylene price on the 1st was 353.75 US dollars/ton, and the price on the 28th was 593.50 US dollars/ton, an increase of 67.77%. The current price fell 44.82% year-on-year.


Analysis review   

Recently, ethylene has been on the rise overall. The price of the ethylene market in Asia has risen. As of the 28th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at 715-725 US dollars/ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at 635-645 US dollars/ton. The price of the European ethylene market has risen sharply. As of the 28th, the European ethylene market price closed at 517-527 US dollars/ton for FD Northwest Europe, and closed at 488-496 US dollars/ton for CIF Northwest Europe. Ethylene prices in the United States were stable, as of the 28th, the price was 255-267 US dollars/ton. Overall: throughout May, the ethylene market in Europe, America and Asia was on the rise, especially the ethylene market in Europe and Asia rose sharply. The trading atmosphere of the entire ethylene market was active, and the market has risen all the way, with a larger increase, which was also related to the decline of the previous ethylene market. Industry players pay more attention to the supply and demand situation after the holiday.

International: On May 27, the price of the US WTI crude oil futures market fell sharply, and the main contract settlement price was reported at 32.81 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.54 US dollars or 4.5%. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, the main contract settlement price reported 35.45 US dollars/barrel, a decline of 1.29 US dollars or 3.5%. The crude oil market fell sharply, and ethylene costs could not be supported. However, the continued rise in ethylene prices was affected by the previous rise in crude oil prices. The impact of crude oil decline on ethylene has not shown any effect for the time being. Throughout May, the demand for the entire industry in Europe and Asia has risen, the ethylene market has bottomed out, the downstream styrene prices have stabilized, and the ethanol market has continued to be high, giving ethylene price support. The ethylene market continued to rise in May.


Market outlook

According to the ethylene analyst of SunSirs, on the one hand, the risk factor of the current crude oil market is Sino-U.S. relations, and more importantly, the restart of the economy may lead to the recurrence of the epidemic situation. On the premise that the supply problem is still not completely solved, the crude oil market is not optimistic, and it is difficult to form cost support for ethylene. Therefore, the data analyst of SunSirs expects that the ethylene price will mainly fall in the future.


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