SunSirs: Positive Support, China Soybean Meal Market Continues to Rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, starting from the end of July, favorable conditions hit, and the soybean meal market saw an upward trend, with prices continuously rising. On July 29th, the average market price of soybean meal was 2,938 RMB/ton, and on August 12th, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,034 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 3.27%.

Supply side: From January to July 2025, China imported a total of 61.04 million tons of soybeans, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. Among them, the import of soybeans in July was 11.67 million tons, a decrease of 4.8% compared to the previous month, but an increase of 18.5% year-on-year. Starting from August, the import quantity of raw soybeans has gradually declined, and the supply pressure has gradually decreased, supporting the rise of soybean meal market.

Inventory: From the statistics of soybean meal inventory, it can be seen that since April, due to the impact of tariff policies, the quantity of imported soybeans arriving at the port has continued to decline, and soybean meal inventory has hit a new record, falling to single digits. In early May, the number of imported soybeans arriving at the port recovered, and soybean meal inventories gradually rebounded. In June, soybean meal inventory continued to increase, and in July, soybean meal inventory remained high. In early August, it exceeded 1 million tons, and as of the week ending August 6th, soybean meal inventory exceeded 1.07 million tons. Inventory pressure remains, and the soybean meal market is experiencing weak upward momentum.

Futures: As we enter August, although the expected high yield of US soybeans is the main factor, there are concerns about export demand, and the performance of US soybean futures prices in the external market is not good. Due to the upcoming listing of US soybeans and the incomplete development of China US soybean trade, there is a gap in domestic imported soybean raw materials, and domestic soybean futures are strengthening. The domestic soybean meal futures market is improving, and the spot market is overall recovering. As of August 12th, the main contract for soybean meal received 3038 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.93% from early August. Supported by the futures market, the soybean meal market continues to rise.

Demand: Starting from the end of July, as temperatures rise, the operating rate of the terminal breeding industry remains low, and the demand for soybean meal is weak, resulting in an average amount of soybean meal purchased in the market. The trading volume of soybean meal market has declined, resulting in poor sales. Low terminal demand puts pressure on the upward trend of soybean meal market.

The soybean meal analyst from SunSirs believes that in late August, the quantity of imported soybeans is expected to continue to increase, the operating rate of soybean oil plants will rise, and the terminal demand will be poor. The soybean meal market may weakly decline in the future.

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