SunSirs: Copper Prices Fluctuated Widely Last Week (August 4-8)

Price trend

As shown in the chart above, copper prices fluctuated widely last week. Spot copper was quoted at 78,558.33 RMB/ton by the end of the week, up 0.18% from 78,418.33 RMB/ton at the start of the week, 6.4% from the beginning of the year, and 11.1% year-on-year.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of SunSirs, in the past three months, copper prices fell for 5 weeks and rose for 7 weeks. Copper prices rose slightly this week.

Analysis review

LME copper stocks

According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME), LME copper stocks rose slightly. As of the weekend, LME copper stocks were 156,125 tons, up 10.14% from the beginning of the month.

Macroeconomic aspects: Recent US economic data was generally weak: the non-farm payroll report, ISM service industry index and the number of initial jobless claims last week all pointed to slowing economic growth and a weak labor market, further strengthening the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September.

Supply side: China's off-season copper imports exceeded expectations: Data from the General Administration of Customs showed that imports of unwrought copper and copper products in July were 480,000 tons, a month-on-month increase for two consecutive months and a year-on-year increase of 9.6%. Cumulative imports from January to July were 3.113 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, showing demand resilience; domestic concentrate TC was still at a low level, overseas mine disturbances continued, and the shutdown of mines in Chile had exacerbated concerns about supply disruptions, providing certain support for copper prices.

On the demand side: China imported 480,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products in July (up 9.6% year-on-year). The unexpectedly strong off-season imports demonstrate resilient demand, with investments in new energy and power grids supporting long-term consumption. However, spot market activity showed signs of weakness, with holders holding prices to ship and inquiries from downstream buyers remaining sluggish, exerting strong upward pressure on copper prices.

Future outlook:

In summary, the Chilean mining disaster, exacerbated by mining disruptions, was supporting copper prices, but consumption was weak. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. If the Federal Reserve implements its September rate cut and domestic demand recovers during the "golden September, silver October" period, copper prices are expected to rise.

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