SunSirs: Ethylene Glycol May Fluctuate and Weaken in August

In July, ethylene glycol prices rose first and then fell 

In July, ethylene glycol prices initially rose before falling, forming an inverted V-shaped trend. Earlier, driven by anti-involution sentiment and an upward trend in commodity prices, ethylene glycol prices steadily rose. Last week, coal prices fell, and ethylene glycol prices also fell slightly.

Negative factors for ethylene glycol in August

1. Saudi Arabian production had restarted, easing concerns about overseas supply. Although arrival and import data were relatively low compared to the same period, a turning point was approaching, and import arrivals will gradually recover.

2. Domestic and international ethylene glycol plants had seen a slight increase in capacity, suggesting strong expectations for a supply recovery.

3. Domestic demand (end-user demand) is traditionally off-seasonal during July and August, and ethylene glycol is in its off-season, leading to weak demand expectations.

Bullish Factors for Ethylene Glycol in August

1. MEG inventories are low in the short term. While there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, they remain low overall from July to September, with supply and demand relatively balanced.

2. While the overall anti-involution sentiment in commodities had been interrupted recently, the trend remains.

Future outlook:

In summary, it is expected that the price of ethylene glycol in August may fluctuate and weaken.

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