SunSirs: Demand Changed, Xylene Market Fell First and Then Rose in July

Price trend

According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, the xylene market experienced an overall downward trend in July 2025, initially declining before rising. From July 1 to 31, the domestic xylene market price fell from 6,120 RMB/ton to 6,010 RMB/ton, a cumulative decrease of 1.8% over the period.

Analysis review

Early July: The domestic xylene market saw a slight decline this cycle. Weak crude oil prices and subdued downstream demand drove a subdued spot market sentiment. Performance in Shandong was weak, with demand from both the downstream chemical and oil blending industries sluggish, prompting major refineries to lower their quotes. Both supply and demand remained weak. As the price gap between toluene and xylene narrowed, some downstream companies shifted to toluene, contributing to a weak market sentiment and a slight price decline.

Mid-July: This cycle, markets across the country saw a general decline. Weak demand in Shandong led to frequent price cuts from refineries, resulting in a significant price drop. Later in the cycle, as prices continued to decline, downstream companies sought to restock at low prices. Deliveries improved significantly in the latter half of the cycle, with strong demand from blending companies and other sectors experiencing limited demand. Low inventories boosted prices in East China, leading to a slight decline. Low inventories in South China, coupled with weak downstream demand, led to a slight price decline.

Late July: The domestic xylene market rebounded slightly after an overall decline during this cycle, but overall performance remained weak. Lower crude oil prices during the cycle weighed on market sentiment. Downstream demand in Shandong was weak, and despite refineries proactively lowering their bids, transaction volume remained limited. Later in the cycle, the market saw a slight recovery as downstream PX companies entered the market to replenish inventories. East China remained weak this week, with inventories remaining low. In South China, market conditions declined as refineries lowered their listed prices, with downstream demand remaining largely rigid.

Cost side: As of the 28th, the settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $66.71 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $70.04 per barrel. Crude oil prices was volatile during this round of price adjustments. On the one hand, OPEC+ is likely to complete its planned 2.2 million barrels per day production increase by the end of September, and the news of a trade agreement between the US and Japan caused a decline in the international oil market. On the other hand, market concerns about tariff negotiations between the US and Europe, the Middle East issue, and the unrest in Europe continued to affect crude oil prices.

Supply side: Sinopec's xylene price summary showed that operations were temporarily operating normally, production was stable, and both production and sales were steady. Company prices remained unchanged from the previous day. As of July 30th, the East China company quoted 5,800 RMB/ton, the North China company quoted 5,800-6,000 RMB/ton, the South China company quoted 6,150-6,200 RMB/ton, and the Central China company quoted 5,900-6,150 RMB/ton.

Demand Side: According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, as of July 31, 2025, the price of paraxylene at Sinopec Sales Company remained stable at 7,250 RMB/ton. This price applied to all regions in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Plants at Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical were operating stably, with sales normal. This price was 50 RMB/ton lower than on June 29. As of July 30, the closing price of paraxylene in the Asian market was $841-843/ton FOB Korea and $866-868/ton CFR China, unchanged from June 27.

Future outlook:

Crude oil prices rose at the end of the month, providing a modest boost to the xylene market. With the recent commissioning of several new plants on the supply side, the market anticipated a relatively loose supply outlook. On the demand side, the oil blending industry has been weak recently, and paraxylene manufacturers' purchasing intentions were focused on just-in-time needs, leading to a slightly bearish outlook. Overall, under the combined influence of weak supply and demand, the xylene market is expected to remain stable but weaker in the short term, with a focus on crude oil trends.

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