SunSirs: The National Hot Rolled Coils and Cold Rolled Sheet Prices Were Stronger, and the Market Transaction Performance Was Average (July 14-18)

Price trend

The price of hot rolled coils slightly increased last week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of July 18th, the average price of hot rolled coils in the domestic market was 3,380 RMB/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.6%; The average price of cold rolled sheet in the domestic market was 3,737.5 RMB/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.809%.

Factors affecting price fluctuations:

Fundamentals

According to the latest data obtained from SunSirs, the social inventory of hot rolled products this week was 265.6 tons, a decrease of 21,500 tons compared to the previous week. The weekly output was 3.2114 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons compared to the previous week; Last week, the social inventory of cold-rolled products was 1.307 million tons, a decrease of 3,400 tons compared to the previous week. The weekly output was 867,700 tons, a decrease of 14,300 tons compared to the previous week.

Last week, the inventory of steel billets of the same caliber in Tangshan's main warehouses and ports was 1.1162 million tons, an increase of 62,500 tons compared to the previous week. During the research period, downstream billet adjustment enterprises still showed weak demand for billets, and the social inventory continued to accumulate.

Cost side

Last Friday, the supply of major steel varieties was 8.6819 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 45,300 tons or 0.5%; The total inventory was 13.3766 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 19,200 tons, a decrease of 0.1%; The apparent consumption was 8.711 million tons, a decrease of 0.3% compared to the previous period.

Market outlook

Overall, in terms of supply, due to the recent increase in steel mill maintenance plans, the production of molten iron had fallen, and the subsequent production of finished products may follow suit. However, due to the profitability of steel mills, the rate of production decline may be relatively slow. In terms of demand, the accumulation rate of steel inventory during the off-season was slower than in previous years, and the inventory pressure of steel mills was still acceptable, resulting in limited overall supply and demand contradictions. In terms of cost, steel mills had a high enthusiasm for replenishing coke raw materials, and the market expects coke to start its first round of price increases, with support from steel costs. The market sentiment had been boosted by news such as the "anti involution" movement, and overall it was warm. Overall, the fundamental contradictions in steel were not yet prominent. Driven by cost support and market sentiment, it is expected that steel prices will fluctuate to be stronger in the short term.

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