SunSirs: Under the Weak Supply-Demand Situation, PTA Market Showed a Downward Trend

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic PTA spot market showed a downward trend in July. As of July 16th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4,735 RMB/ton, a decrease of 6.81% from the beginning of the month.

Analysis review

The international oil price market was fluctuating. As of July 15th, the settlement price of the August WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $66.52 per barrel, and the settlement price of the September Brent crude oil futures contract was $68.71 per barrel. Geopolitical and tariff instability, the US sanctions plan against Russia will not be implemented in the short term, coupled with the ongoing OPEC+ production increase, it is expected that the center of crude oil decline will weaken and adjust.

Recently, there has been little change in the PTA plant, and Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 million ton plant was shut down on June 19th. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million ton plant reduced its load on July 1st due to unforeseen circumstances, and increased its load on July 6th. Domestic PTA was in the production cycle, and there are relatively few maintenance plans in the second half of the year, resulting in relatively loose supply.

Downstream polyester production and sales were weak, and inventory continued to rise, with inventory rebounding. During the seasonal off-season of demand, the production and sales of polyester filament were under pressure. Manufacturers had repeatedly offered discounts on shipments, but the results had been minimal. Factory inventory continued to grow, and the market continued to be weak. They planned to continue implementing production cuts. The terminal weaving industry lacked demand and orders, and maintained a stock on demand.

Market outlook

SunSirs’ analysts believe that crude oil was volatile, cost supportwas limited, PTA industry capacity expansion expectations were combined with polyester production reduction expectations, and under the weak supply-demand situation, PTA will continue to be weaker in the short term.

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