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SunSirs: The Liquid Ammonia Market Fluctuated and Fell (July 7-11)

July 14 2025 10:26:51     SunSirs (John)

Price trend

Last week (7.7-7.11), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong was sluggish, with prices continuing the downward trend from last week’s previous week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 1.28%. The main reason for the increase in supply pressure was the gradual recovery of maintenance equipment in the early stage, coupled with weak local demand, resulting in a stock accumulation in the market.

Analysis review

Firstly, from the supply side perspective, the maintenance equipment in Henan region has been put into operation, resulting in a loose supply situation. Coupled with the increase in urea to ammonia conversion by manufacturers, the supply has significantly increased, and the rise in ammonia volume has dragged down ammonia prices. From the beginning of the week to the middle of the week, the prices of manufacturers have loosened, but as the weekend approached, the mentality of enterprises to raise prices was gradually strengthening. Some large factories made slight price increases, but the magnitude was very limited. A large factory in Shandong only increased by 20 RMB/ton. As of Friday, mainstream large factories in Shandong have generally lowered their prices by more than 50 RMB/ton. Distributors mainly quoted low prices for shipments.

Secondly, from the demand side, some downstream facilities in Jiangsu and Anhui regions have undergone maintenance, resulting in a decrease in operating rates and a decrease in ammonia consumption. Downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, agricultural demand was still in the off-season, industrial demand remained rigid, and the overall demand side was bearish. As of July 11th, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region was 2,300-2,360 RMB/ton.

Market outlook

Recently, the market demand has been relatively light, with agricultural and industrial demand mainly following suit. There will be little change in supply in the future, with equipment on and off, and overall showing a slow increasing trend. On the demand side, in the short term, the output of compound fertilizer is not high, but there is a possibility of a rebound in operating rate. In the future, the increase in supply and the rebound in demand will continue to pull. The price will be volatile within a range.

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