SunSirs: The Expansion of Production Capacity Impacted the Market, Causing Vinyl Cyanide to Rise and then Fall Back in the First Half of the Year

In the first half of 2025, the price of vinyl cyanide in the domestic market rose and then fell, and the supply change dominated the price trend. During this period, the difference between supply and demand between the mainland and the port area caused the price gap between the eastern and western markets to widen to a certain extent, especially in mid-to-early April. In the first half of the year, the highest point in the port area of East China appeared on February 7, 11,800-12,000 RMB/ton, and 11,700-11,900 RMB/ton in Shandong, which hit a new high in the year and also hit a new high since early January 2022.

In the first half of the year, the rhythm of the vinyl cyanide market can be simply divided into two stages: the domestic vinyl cyanide market in January and February after a wave of roller coaster market, since March the market trend has tended to be flat again, most of the time the price is concentrated between 8,000-9,000 RMB/ton, and the market in May is further deadlocked, hovering around 8,100-8,500 RMB/ton and fluctuating slightly.

Prices rose sharply in the first quarter and then fell: From January to early February, the domestic vinyl cyanide market price rose rapidly. At the beginning of January, due to the unexpected shutdown of a set of equipment in Shandong Lihuayi, the already tight supply situation was aggravated again, and the listed price of the main factory rose sharply. And the social inventory was low, the industry did not hold much goods in their hands, the spot market was extremely tight, the listed prices of large factories continued to rise, and the downstream was expected to stock up before the Spring Festival holiday, so the market price continued to rise.

During the Spring Festival, the demand of the downstream industry weakened, so some traders in order to seize market share, reduced the sales price, the pre-maintenance of the device had been restarted, superimposed Yulong Petrochemical new units had been put into production, the market supply pressure gradually increased, under the influence of bearish sentiment, suppliers actively shipped, resulting in the spot market low-price offers frequent. In mid-March, the decline in the vinyl cyanide market slowed down, and a number of vinyl cyanide production units announced production reduction plans, resulting in a decrease in supply expectations and a corresponding decrease in low-price offers in the market.

2025-2026 China's new vinyl cyanide production capacity plan:

Continued low-level shocks in the second quarter: In April, new units of Yulong Petrochemical and Sinochem Quanzhou were put into operation, and low-price goods continued to flow out, suppressing the mentality of industry insiders, and the spot market offers continued to fall. Before and after the May Day holiday, the vinyl cyanide market was relatively calm, and the overall transaction focus did not change much. However, as the spot supply in some areas gradually emerged, vinyl cyanide factories had raised their quotations, and in late May, Shandong Haili restarted, and after a stalemate for many days, the factory quotations fell, and the spot market also followed suit. In June, 400,000 tons of new units of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. were put into operation one after another, and the supply continued to increase, but the cost pressure and local supply variables existed, and the market trading stalemated.

Market outlook

Due to the release of new production capacity of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, the overall supply of vinyl cyanide is expected to increase in July, while consumption may weaken to a certain extent due to the traditional off-season, of which the starting load of the acrylamide industry may continue to decline, so the fundamentals of the short-term vinyl cyanide market are weak as a whole, and the price lacks effective rebound momentum, but the cost drive still exists. In the second half of the year, there will be more supply variables due to unplanned shutdowns and load reductions, and when the market rebounds will still be determined by the extent of supply reductions.

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