SunSirs: Tightening Supply and Demand, China LNG Prices Stop Falling and Rebound
July 03 2025 14:18:24 SunSirs (Selena)
The liquefied natural gas index reported 4,005 RMB/ton (week on week +1.1%), ending the continuous downward trend, reflecting the recovery of local demand in the northwest region and the acceleration of factory destocking.
Supply side: The shutdown and maintenance of factories in Northwest China and the resumption of work and production in North China are parallel, with a slight increase in operating rates and overall supply maintaining stability; Pipeline gas resources are abundant, suppressing the rebound space of LNG prices.
Inventory side: The inventory of the Northwest LNG plant has significantly decreased, mainly due to the recovery of local industrial demand and the improvement of logistics transportation, which has driven the improvement of shipments.
Demand side: Marginal rebound in demand for vehicles: logistics and intercity transportation activity have increased, and sales of gas stations have slightly increased;
The seasonality of industrial demand is weak, but there is a release of replenishment demand from local chemical and ceramic enterprises.
Short term prices may continue to rebound moderately, but the ability of end-users to accept high prices is limited, and it is necessary to observe the supply pressure brought about by the acceleration of factory resumption.
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