SunSirs: Mainly driven by Raw Materials, China PET Bottle Chips Rose first and then Fell back in June

According to the price data from SunSirs, as of June 27th, the average selling price of PET is 6,147 RMB/ton.

In June 2025, the price of polyester bottle chips showed a volatile trend of weak pullback in the first half of the year, high rise in the middle, and pullback in the second half.

In early October, the average spot price in East China fell from 5,965 RMB/ton to 5,939 RMB/ton, mainly due to the decline of crude oil below 70 US dollars/barrel, which dragged down PTA and ethylene glycol (PTA fell to 4,870 RMB/ton), and cost support collapsed. Downstream inventory replenishment is only limited to small orders for basic needs, and exports are suppressed by rising sea freight rates and anti-dumping investigations. The inventory days remain at a high level for 16-18 days, and under the influence of multiple factors, prices are weakly declining.

In mid month, the weekly average price in East China rose to 6,084 RMB/ton, and geopolitical conflicts pushed Brent crude oil to 78.85 US dollars/barrel, followed by PTA rising to 4,990 RMB/ton, with increased cost support.

In the latter half of the year, as the situation between Iran and Israel eased, crude oil prices plummeted, cost support loosened, and polyester bottle chip prices also fell. On June 26th, the main futures of polyester bottle chips fell by 3.69%, and the market entered a weak consolidation, but the expected reduction in supply limited the decline.

Analysis of Core Influencing Factors

Cost side: Cost fluctuations dominate prices

The Middle East conflict has pushed Brent crude oil to $78.85 per barrel, followed by PTA at $4990 per ton, directly increasing the cost of bottle pellet polymerization. Raw materials are struggling to keep up with the rise, and PTA is expected to add 4.5 million tons of production capacity, which will limit the repair space for processing fees. The high inventory of ethylene glycol at the port limits the rebound.

Supply side: reduced production and weakened capacity expansion

Top companies such as Yisheng, Wankai, and Sinopec jointly reduced production by 20% in July, coupled with the parking of 1 million tons in Sanfang Lane and 70% of the construction in Baihong, affecting a total production capacity of 4.9 million tons. The operating rate is expected to decline by 17 percentage points to 77%. By 2025, only 600,000 tons of equipment will be added to Fuhai, compared to 9.32 million tons added in the previous three years. The degree of capacity expansion will weaken, and the long-term supply pressure will ease.

Demand side: rigid support during peak season, but weak recovery

The recovery of downstream demand is weak, and the replenishment of inventory is mostly due to small orders for essential needs, lacking the drive to chase after price increases. Although the second quarter is the peak season for downstream beverage factories to stock up, there is a certain rigid demand that provides some support for prices. However, overall demand is not enough to drive prices to continue to rise significantly. When cost support weakens, prices are prone to fall.

Overall, the polyester bottle chip factory has a large-scale production reduction plan since July. If the plan is successfully implemented, the low-priced supply in the market will gradually decrease, and the tight supply situation will be reflected, which is conducive to price increases and short-term price recovery is expected.

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