SunSirs: Commodity Intelligence Today (June 11, 2025)

Latest intelligence on bulk raw materials

Macro

1. [Small and Medium Enterprise Development Index] According to the data from the Small and Medium Enterprises Association, China's Small and Medium Enterprise Development Index (SMEDI) was 89.5 in May, up 0.3 points from April, and rebounded significantly after ending a two-month decline.

2. [US Tariffs] The United States and Mexico are about to reach an agreement to cancel Trump's 50% tariff on steel imports below a certain amount. Under the current terms, Mexican steel can be imported duty-free as long as US buyers keep total shipments below levels based on historical trade volumes. The new cap will be higher than the cap allowed by a similar agreement during Trump's first term.

3. [US Employment Trend Index] The World Federation of Conference Boards: The US employment trend index was 107.49 in May, down from 108 in April. Among them, the number of first-time unemployment insurance claims rose to 235,000, the highest level since July 2024. This may indicate that the pressure from the US government's tariff policy is emerging.

4. [Global GDP] The World Bank lowered its global GDP growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.3%. The forecast shows that trade disputes and policy uncertainty will hinder economic growth; the global economy may see its weakest performance since the 1960s in the next decade.

Energy

1. [Crude Oil] On June 10, international crude oil futures closed lower. The settlement price of the July contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $64.98 per barrel, down $0.31 or 0.5%. The settlement price of the August contract of Brent crude oil futures was $66.87 per barrel, down $0.17 or 0.3%.

2. [Crude Oil] The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook report said that U.S. crude oil production will fall to about 13.37 million barrels per day next year, compared with about 13.42 million barrels this year. The forecast marks the first time that the U.S. Energy Statistics Department has predicted that U.S. crude oil production will fall next year. Previously, the department had predicted that production in 2025 and 2026 would hit record highs.

3. [Crude oil] The European Commission proposed to lower the upper limit of Russian oil prices to $45 per barrel, and also proposed to impose a trading ban on the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline. The current upper limit for Russian crude oil is $60.

4. [Crude oil] On the 10th local time, Russian President Putin signed an order announcing that the countermeasures of setting a price cap on Russian oil and oil products will be extended to December 31, 2025.

5. [Coal] Kpler ship tracking data showed that in May 2025, Russia's seaborne coal exports were 14.7838 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.76%, the third consecutive month of month-on-month growth, and a year-on-year increase of 1.59%. From January to May, the cumulative total was 64.2275 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.20%.

6. [Coking coal] On June 10, the auction price of coking coal in the Yulin market rose. The starting price of double four clean coal A≤4, S≤0.4, V37, G≥15 is 530 RMB/ton, 16,000 tons are listed, and the transaction price is 535 RMB/ton, which is 5 RMB/ton higher than the previous period on the 9th.

7. [Liquefied gas] On June 10, 2025, Shandong Jincheng Petrochemical's latest liquefied gas quotation was reduced by 40 RMB/ton to 4,650 RMB/ton, with a daily output of about 200 tons and low inventory.

Chemicals

1. [Caustic soda] Recently, Shandong Nanshan Aluminum announced that the company plans to invest about 1.868 billion RMB to build an annual production of 200,000 tons of caustic soda and an annual production of 165,000 tons of epichlorohydrin in Indonesia.

2. [Neopentyl glycol] Recently, Wanhua Chemical announced an expansion of production, and announced the trimethylolpropane conversion and supporting public utility transformation projects on its official website. After the project is completed, the product will be converted from trimethylolpropane (TMP) to neopentyl glycol (NPG), and the production capacity will be increased from 50,000 tons/year to 100,000 tons/year.

3. [Organic Silicone] Recently, Hangzhou Saiken New Materials' annual production of 15,000 tons of new organic silicon material technical transformation project is planned for approval and public announcement. The project will invest in the construction of an annual production of 15,000 tons of new organic silicon material technical transformation project, adding 1000t/a vinyl silicone oil emulsion, 1000t/a silicone resin emulsion, 1000t/a composite silicone oil emulsion, 2000t/a composite silicone oil, 2500t/a amino silicone oil emulsion, etc.

4. [Lithium Carbonate] A cabinet minister in Zimbabwe said that in order to encourage foreign mining companies to carry out refining business in the country, Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate in 2027.

5. [Ethane] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): The U.S. ethane export forecast for 2025 was lowered by 24% to 410,000 barrels per day; at the same time, the export forecast for 2026 was lowered by 51% to 310,000 barrels per day.

6. [Diethylene glycol] On June 10, according to statistics, 4,000 tons of diethylene glycol are expected to arrive at Zhangjiagang this week. The quantity is scarce. If the storage is delayed within the week, it will be vacant.

7. [Phenol] On June 11, Shandong Fuyu Petrochemical Co., Ltd.'s 250,000 tons/year phenol ketone unit operated normally. The phenol price was increased by 100 RMB to 6,850 RMB/ton, and the inventory was average.

8. [Melamine] On June 11, Shandong Suning Melamine's ex-factory price was 5,300 RMB/ton, a decrease of 50 RMB/ton from the previous quotation day.

9. [TDI] On June 10, the latest TDI execution price of a large factory in Shanghai was 12,850 RMB/ton, down 850 RMB/ton from the previous month.

Rubber and Plastic

1. [Natural Rubber] Currently, Meilan Group has invested in the construction of 5 natural rubber processing plants in Cote d'Ivoire, of which 3 have been put into operation and 2 will be completed in the second half of this year. After all are completed, the annual production capacity will reach 480,000 tons, accounting for nearly 30% of the local production.

2. [ABS] The bulk ABS production line invested and built by Yike Chemical has a total production capacity of 450,000 tons/year. It is expected that the first phase of the device (225,000 tons/year) will be put into production in mid-June. In addition, the first phase of the project also includes storage, transportation, public, auxiliary and environmental protection projects supporting the first phase of the project.

3. [ABS] The first phase of Yulong Petrochemical ABS has a total production capacity of 600,000 tons/year. It was put into production on April 22, and the current load is more than 50%. The second phase of the device is expected to be put into production by the end of the year.

4. [PE] On June 10, Lianyungang Petrochemical, the 400,000-ton low-pressure phase I unit will be shut down on July 23, 2024, and the specific restart time is to be determined; the 400,000-ton phase II unit will be shut down on May 28, 2025, and the restart time is expected to be June 20.

5. [PP] The PP unit of Gulei Petrochemical has a capacity of 350,000 tons/year. It was shut down for maintenance on June 5 and is expected to resume operation on June 10.

Textile

1. [Textile] According to customs data, in May, textile and clothing exports were US$26.21 billion, an increase of 0.6% and 8.4% month-on-month in US dollars, of which textile exports were US$12.63 billion, a decrease of 1.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, and clothing exports were US$13.58 billion, an increase of 3% and a month-on-month increase of 17%.

2. [Acrylonitrile] On June 10, it was reported that the new 400,000-ton/year acrylonitrile unit of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical plans to start feeding this week.

3. [Nylon filament] On June 10, Hai'an Jiahe Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. lowered the price of nylon filament, with POY86D/24F quoted at 11,700 RMB/ton, DTY70D/24F quoted at 13,700 RMB/ton, and FDY40D/7F quoted at 14,500 RMB/ton. Actual orders are subject to negotiation.

4. [Lint cotton] According to reports, as of early June, Australia's new cotton harvest has exceeded 90%, and processing work has just begun to speed up. Currently, 30% has been completed, and new cotton inspection has completed 25%. In recent weeks, Australia's 2025 new cotton listing has begun to accelerate, with a total output of 5.4 million bales.

5. [Lint cotton] According to the statistics bureau data of the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat, Brazil's cotton exports fell in both volume and price in May. The export volume from May 1 to 31 was 192,204 tons, with an average daily export volume of 9,152 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.2%.

6. [Lint Cotton] Gurmeet Singh Khudian, Minister of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare of Punjab, India, announced that the cotton planting area in Punjab increased by 20% in the current harvest season, from 249,000 acres last year to 298,000 acres by 49,000 acres.

Steel

1. [Seamless Pipe] Recently, the European Commission issued an announcement stating that in view of the applicant's withdrawal of the anti-dumping investigation application for seamless steel pipes originating in China on February 27, 2025, it decided to terminate the anti-dumping investigation on the products involved in the case from China.

2. [Ferrosilicon] It is reported that a ferrosilicon plant in Inner Mongolia plans to stop a small furnace on June 11, affecting the output of 90 tons/day. The shutdown time is tentatively set for 20 days.

3. [Iron Ore] From June 2 to June 8, 2025, the total amount of iron ore arriving at 47 ports in China was 26.739 million tons, an increase of 765,000 tons from the previous month; the total amount of iron ore arriving at 45 ports in China was 26.093 million tons, an increase of 728,000 tons from the previous month; the total amount of iron ore arriving at six northern ports was 13.836 million tons, a decrease of 1.572 million tons from the previous month.

4. [Manganese Silicon] As of the week of June 6, the manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port was 3.297 million tons, an increase of 168,000 tons from the previous month; the manganese ore inventory at Lianyungang Port was 5,000 tons; the manganese ore inventory at Qinzhou Port was 900,000 tons, a decrease of 36,000 tons from the previous month. At present, the total manganese ore inventory at the port is 4.202 million tons, an increase of 132,000 tons from the previous period.

5. [Silicon manganese] Baosteel's June bidding: 4,700 tons of silicon manganese, including 600 tons from Baoshan Base, 600 tons from Dongshan Base, and 3,500 tons from Wuhan Iron and Steel. Registration deadline: 2025-06-11 13:00, quotation deadline: 2025-06-11 15:00, required delivery date: 2025-07-10.

6. [Ferrosilicon] Shandong Steel (Laiwu) June bidding: 300 tons of ferrosilicon, registration deadline: 2025-06-12 09:00, quotation deadline: 2025-06-12 10:00, required delivery date: 2025-06-30.

7. [Ferrosilicon] According to Taiwan Customs data, the total import volume of ferrosilicon in Taiwan in May 2025 was 7,401 tons, a decrease of 15.59% from the previous month and an increase of 7.54% from the previous year. From January to May, Taiwan's total imports of ferrosilicon were 33,876 tons, up 7.60% year-on-year. Among them, the top three importers of ferrosilicon (≦55%) in May were mainly from mainland China (416 tons), Japan (22 tons), and Thailand (4 tons); the top three importers of ferrosilicon (>55%) were mainly from Russia (4,194 tons), mainland China (1,956 tons), and Malaysia (640 tons).

Nonferrous

1. [Aluminum] On June 10, the nonferrous metal inventory and changes of the London Metal Exchange (LME) were as follows: Copper inventory was 120,400 tons, down 2,000 tons from the previous day. Aluminum inventory was 359,900 tons, down 2,100 tons from the previous trading day. Nickel inventory was 198,126 tons, down 966 tons from the previous day. Zinc inventory was 134,550 tons, down 1,050 tons from the previous day. Lead inventory was 278,025 tons, down 1,950 tons from the previous day. Tin stocks were 2,415 tons, down 25 tons from the previous day.

2. [Nickel] Indonesian State Secretary Prasetyo Hadi said the Indonesian government revoked the mining business licenses of four nickel mining companies operating on Raja Ampat Island in Southwest Papua Province to protect the surrounding environment from mining operations.

3. [Nickel] According to statistics, the actual production of nickel pig iron in Indonesia in May was 157,600 tons, an increase of 1.31% month-on-month and 28.34% year-on-year. From January to May 2025, Indonesia's total nickel pig iron production was 751,200 tons, an increase of 23.33% year-on-year.

4. [Copper] Data released by the Chilean Copper Commission showed that in April 2025, the copper production of Chilean National Copper Company (Codelco) increased by 21% year-on-year to 114,600 tons, consolidating its position as the world's largest copper producer. During the same period, the output of Escondida Mine under BHP Billiton, the world's largest copper mine, soared 31% to 128,400 tons.

Building materials

1. [Glass] Dalian Yihai Dabo Line 1 (designed capacity 520 tons/day) released water on June 9 and planned to start technical transformation.

2. [Waste paper] On June 10, Jiangsu Taicang Nine Dragons Paper raised thepurchase price of waste paper by 20 RMB/ton, and the adjusted ex-factory price was 1,570 RMB/ton.

Zhejiang Jiaxing Jingxing Paper raised the purchase price of waste paper by 20 RMB/ton, and the adjusted ex-factory price without invoice was 1,590 RMB/ton.

Zhejiang Shaoxing Huayu Paper raised the purchase price of waste paper by 20 RMB/ton, and the adjusted ex-factory price without invoice was 1,520 RMB/ton.

Agricultural and sideline products

1. [Live pigs] The Ministry of Commerce has decided to extend the deadline for anti-dumping investigations on imported pork and pork by-products originating from the EU to December 16, 2025.

2. [Palm oil] It is understood that as of May 30, the commercial inventory of palm oil in some parts of the country was about 370,000 tons, an increase of about 25,000 tons from last week.

3. [Corn] The weekly export inspection report of the US Department of Agriculture showed that the export inspection volume of US corn last week increased by 1% from a week ago and 24% from the same period last year. As of the week of June 5, 2025, the export inspection volume of US corn was 1,656,562 tons, 1,641,722 tons last week, and 1,340,755 tons in the same period last year.

4. [Soybean meal] According to EU data, as of June 8, the cumulative import volume of EU soybean meal in 2024/25 was 18.2 million tons, much higher than the 14.5 million tons in the same period last year, indicating strong growth in feed demand.

5. [Eggs] The Korea Rural Economic Research Institute published a report on the 8th saying that the price of eggs in South Korea reached a four-year high in May, and the upward trend is expected to continue at least until August. The average retail price of 30 large eggs reached 7,026 won in May (1,000 won is about 5.3 RMB), breaking 7,000 won for the first time since July 2021.

6. [Sugar] According to the data of the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex), as of the first week of June 2025, a total of 5 working days, Brazil has shipped a total of 783,200 tons of sugar, compared with 3,194,300 tons in June last year; the average daily shipment volume is 156,600 tons/day, a decrease of 1.93% from 159,700 tons/day in June last year.

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