SunSirs: China MTBE Market Trend significantly Rises

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from May 12th to 16th, MTBE prices rose from 4,875 RMB/ton to 5,110 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 4.82% during the period, a month on month decrease of 5.59%, and a year-on-year decrease of 26.08%. The MTBE market is gradually stabilizing and recovering, with the most direct factor being the good trend of crude oil. Supported by favorable factors such as the rise in crude oil and gasoline prices, manufacturers are enthusiastic about pushing up prices. In addition, Dechen Energy, Shandong Yuhuang, and Huayi Chemical have successively stopped production. With the increase of plant shutdown manufacturers, the supply of MTBE resources has sharply decreased, and export negotiations are also relatively active. Under the support of multiple favorable factors, the MTBE market has gradually stopped falling and risen.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The rise in international oil prices is mainly due to the official announcement of the results of the economic and trade talks between China and the United States, the weakening of market concerns about the risk of trade disputes, and the United States' plan to replenish strategic reserves. As of May 15th, the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $64.53 per barrel, a decrease of $1.56 or 2.4%.

On the demand side, in terms of gasoline terminal demand, the rebound in international crude oil futures has boosted the mentality of industry players, and the refined oil market has initially suppressed and then rebounded. Among them, refineries are actively pushing up diesel prices, and middle and downstream merchants are accelerating their pace of purchasing in the market, resulting in an increase in trading volume on the market. The MTBE demand side is influenced by favorable factors.

Supply side: Dechen Energy, Shandong Yuhuang, and Huayi Chemical have successively shut down, resulting in a decrease in the operating rate of their facilities. The short-term domestic MTBE supply is affected by favorable factors.

As of the close on May 15th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $17.72 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at $662.04-664.04 per ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $11/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $777.74-778.24/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $10.84 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $699.96-700.32 per ton (197.64-197.74 cents per gallon).

The future supply forecast is relatively stable. In terms of terminal demand, the expected retail price limit for this round has been lowered, and there is no holiday support. The frequency of private car trips by the public has decreased, and retail gas station shipments are average. Gas station merchants maintain a median inventory for procurement and sales. The MTBE analyst from SunSirs believes that the domestic MTBE market may experience a narrow decline.

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