SunSirs: China Wood Pulp Continues to Decline in April 2025, with Short-term Weakness Leading to a Downward Trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the prices of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp will maintain a downward trend in April 2025. On April 30th, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong Province was 6,250 RMB/ton, a decrease of 4.43% compared to the average price on April 1st. On April 30th, the average market price of hardwood pulp in Shandong Province was 4,250 RMB/ton, a decrease of 9.3% compared to the average price on April 1st.

In terms of supply: In early April, overseas pulp continued to arrive at the port, and the market supply of wood pulp was relatively sufficient. However, with some foreign pulp mills having maintenance plans, the long-term supply instability still exists. At present, the inventory level of wood pulp in domestic ports remains high, and the short-term market supply is loose, weakening the favorable atmosphere that exists. With the trial production of new production capacity in the domestic wood pulp market, the supply of domestic broad-leaved pulp may gradually loosen, and the pressure on the market supply side will not decrease.

In terms of demand: In April, the downstream raw paper industry was relatively off-season, and under seasonal patterns, market demand was relatively limited. The upward movement of pulp prices was not good, and the spot market still maintained low trading volume. However, the market's acceptance of high priced wood pulp is not high, and companies have a cautious attitude towards inquiring about raw materials, which makes it difficult to have upward expectations for pulp prices. In addition, the tariffs and trade policies between China and the United States have led to a widespread bearish sentiment in the market, and the negative factors of weak demand in the off-season of the paper industry have dragged down the weak downward trend of pulp and paper prices. As the end of the month approaches, the downstream raw paper industry is affected by insufficient order follow-up, and market enterprises mainly focus on shipping and destocking. The overall operating rate is expected to decline, and the demand in the pulp market continues to be weak, further driving down pulp prices.

In terms of imports: Currently, the inventory clearance at domestic ports is slow. Based on data from major producing countries exporting to China, Brazil's shipments of coniferous pulp to China increased by 9.88% month on month and broad-leaved pulp increased by 60.05% month on month in March. Chile's shipments of coniferous pulp to China decreased by 6.31% month on month and broad-leaved pulp increased by 40.51% month on month. Therefore, after a shipping schedule of about 2 months, it is expected that the amount of imported goods arriving in May may increase.

In terms of futures, the main contract price of pulp futures continues to decline. As of April 30th, the opening price of the main contract sp2507 for pulp futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5,170 RMB/ton, the closing price was 5,120 RMB/ton, and the highest price was 5,184 RMB/ton, with a total of 277,500 transactions and 117,631 positions held.

The wood pulp analyst from SunSirs believes that the current wood pulp market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand. The supply side of the market is loose, while the demand side lacks obvious positive support, and the market demand may continue to be weak. In April, there was a slight pullback in external market quotations, causing bearish sentiment among industry players towards the future trend of pulp prices. It is expected that the short-term spot price of wood pulp will continue to weaken and decline.

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