SunSirs: Driven by External Market, China Sugar Prices Rise

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the average price of first grade white sugar in China was 6,182 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week, and 6,230 RMB/ton at the end of the week, with a price drop of 0.78%.

On the domestic front, before the start of this crushing season, the market generally estimated the production of Guangxi 2024/25 crushing season to be between 6.7-6.9 million tons. Currently, the production estimate has been lowered to 6.4-6.5 million tons. Currently, driven by external factors and drought in production areas, the market maintains a strong and volatile pattern. However, in the medium term, considering import supplementation, the supply is still sufficient.

Internationally, as of the first half of January, the cumulative sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil was 39.794 million tons, a decrease of 2.309 million tons from the same period last year's 42.103 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.48%. Due to low inventory, Brazil's export volume in January decreased by 35.6% year-on-year. Overall, the space above international sugar prices is limited. As of February 9th, the cumulative sugar production during Thailand's 2024/25 crushing season was 6.4144 million tons, an increase of 524,600 tons or 8.91% compared to the same period last year's 5.8898 million tons. The squeezing progress is relatively stable.

Short term external trading has driven up sugar prices, and it is expected that sugar prices will mainly fluctuate and strengthen in the short term.

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