SunSirs: Seamless Tube Prices Fell Weakly in December

Price trend

According to data from SunSirs, seamless tube prices first fell and then rose in December. At the beginning of the month on the 20th, the price of 108 * 4.5 seamless tubes was 4,215 RMB/ton, which fell to 4,207.5 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.18%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.58%.

Analysis review

In terms of raw materials: In December, the price of tube billets slightly decreased, and the market price of 20 # hot-rolled tube billets was quoted at 3,460-3,540 RMB/ton, a decrease of about 40 RMB/ton from the beginning of the month.

On the demand side: The market downturn was closely related to raw materials, and iron ore was starting to weaken. The market was concerned about negative feedback from raw materials, and the cost side cannot support tube prices. December entered the off-season of demand, and the macro and industrial sectors were in a period of calm. There were temporarily no new macro benefits emerging, and the fundamentals continued to have a low supply, low demand, and low inventory pattern. The supply-demand contradiction was not obvious, but it has also failed to provide direction for seamless tube prices, making market performance uncertain.

In terms of exports, China's seamless tube exports in October were 559,000 tons, a month on month increase of 17.52% and a year-on-year increase of 32.89%; From January to October, China exported a total of 4.5475 million tons of seamless tubes, a year-on-year decrease of 5.25%. In October, China imported 11,600 tons of seamless tubes, a month on month decrease of 6.03% and a year-on-year increase of 25.69%; From January to October, China imported a total of 99,300 tons of seamless tubes, a year-on-year increase of 11.05%.

Market outlook

In summary, the market demand during the off-season was average, and many tube factories were on the brink of profit and loss. Enterprises still had plans to reduce production through maintenance. This year's inventory accumulation time has significantly shifted back compared to previous years, and inventory pressure was not high. The thread was at the lowest level in 5 years, which was also the confidence that seamless tube prices had not continued to decline, and spot prices had strong resistance to decline. Next, it need to pay attention to the actual implementation of policies in the early stage, changes in market supply and demand, and changes in the international economic situation. The supply and demand are weak, but the contradiction is not prominent, and there is not much room for seamless tube prices to rise or fall in the short term.

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