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SunSirs: Butanol Soared 15% in a Single Day Due to Strong Raw Material Support

April 14 2020 13:33:59     SunSirs (John)

Price trend

According to the monitoring of SunSirs: as of April 13, the average price of n-butanol was 5,216 RMB/ton (including tax). Compared with the previous day (reference price 4,516 RMB/ton on April 12), it increased by 700 RMB/ton, or more than 15%.


Analysis review   

Product: After the Qingming Festival in April, the domestic n-butanol market rose steadily. At the end of last week, the price of raw material propylene rose sharply, boosted by its strong support, and the price of n-butanol rose sharply during the weekend. At present, the load of many manufacturers is low, and the inventory of mainstream manufacturers has declined significantly. Affected by the soaring raw materials, the cost of manufacturers has increased, and the pressure has increased. It is heard that some manufacturers have plans to reduce production or stop production. At present, the supply of goods in the market is tight, and they are reluctant to sell. Some large factories in Shandong are waiting and waiting. At present, a small number of downstream replenishment mentality is positive, some of the downstream hold a wait-and-see attitude, and the overall market trading atmosphere is warmer than before. As of April 14, the reference quotation of n-butanol market in South China has risen to 6,000-6,400 RMB/ton, and that in Northwest China has reached 6,250 RMB/ton. The quoted price of n-butanol of Wanhua Chemical in North China is 6,000 RMB/ton, the quoted price of n-butanol of Wanhua Chemical in East China is 6,200 RMB/ton, and the quoted price of n-butanol of Wanhua Chemical in South China is 6,400 RMB/ton. Compared with last week, prices in various regions have increased by as much as 1,500 RMB/ton.

Industrial chain: Since April 3, the price of propylene has continued to rise. On the one hand, affected by the international situation, now many countries have introduced production reduction policies, which are favorable for the crude oil market and driving up the price of propylene. On the other hand, due to the impact of public health events, the price of melt blown cloth has skyrocketed, and its raw materials have more favorable market. The modified special material in PP is the melt blown cloth raw material, and the price is rising obviously. Now, PP futures continue to rise, and there is a trading limit on Friday, which has a great positive effect on propylene price. On April 12, the market price of propylene in the eastern region continued to soar. Once again, the daily price hike was generally over 1,000 RMB/ton, an increase of 35.02%. Some enterprises even soared 5,000 RMB/ton, an increase of nearly 100%. Last month, the price of propylene in Shandong Province fell in shock. At the end of the month, it fell sharply again, with a monthly decline of more than 15%. On April 1, the price continued to decline by 100-200 RMB/ton, and on April 2, it still declined by about 50 RMB/ton. On April 3, the price of some enterprises slightly increased by 50-100 RMB/ton. After the Qingming Festival, the price of propylene increased steadily. On April 7, the price increased by about 100 RMB/ton every day, and on April 10, it increased by 200-300 RMB/ton. On April 11, the price increased by more than 1,000 RMB/ton. On Sunday, April 12, it continued to soar by 1,000-5,000 yuan/ Tons, the market transaction has soared to 8,000-12,000 RMB/ton, and some manufacturers have suspended quotation. The upstream production reduction is good, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is good and the raw materials are in short supply. It is expected that the propylene price will still have a significant upward adjustment in recent days.


Market outlook

Analysts of n-butano in SunSirs believe that due to the impact of the surge in raw propylene, it is expected that the focus of the domestic n-butanol market will be high and strong in recent days.


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