SunSirs: Seamless Tube Prices Fell Weakly in November

Price trend

According to data from SunSirs, the price of seamless tubes slightly decreased in November. At the beginning of the month, the price for 108 * 4.5 seamless tubes was 4,340 RMB/ton, but by the end of the month it had dropped to 4,215 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.88% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.21%.

Analysis review

In terms of raw materials: In November, the price of tube billets slightly decreased, and the market price of 20 # hot-rolled tube billets was quoted at 3,460-3,540 RMB/ton, a decrease of about 40 RMB/ton from the beginning of the month.

On the demand side: With the deepening of winter and the impact of cold wave weather, the demand for seamless tubes continued to be weak, while the number of tube factories shutting down for maintenance has increased, and the fundamentals remained in a weak balance state. Traders were still in a wait-and-see state regarding winter storage, and overall stocking enthusiasm was average. US President Trump announced an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. This has raised concerns in the market about the export environment next year, especially for steel related exports, which will exert a certain pressure on seamless tube prices next year. China was in a macro window period, and the market was waiting for the meeting situation in early December.

In terms of exports, China's seamless tube exports in October were 559,000 tons, a month on month increase of 17.52% and a year-on-year increase of 32.89%; From January to October, China exported a total of 4.5475 million tons of seamless tubes, a year-on-year decrease of 5.25%. In October, China imported 11,600 tons of seamless tubes, a month on month decrease of 6.03% and a year-on-year increase of 25.69%; From January to October, China imported a total of 99,300 tons of seamless tubes, a year-on-year increase of 11.05%.

Market outlook

In summary, as the weather turned colder, demand in many cities in Northeast China was hindered, and overall market transactions were relatively quiet. The demand in the later stage may continued to shrink, and traders had weak willingness to replenish inventory, with a focus on fast in and fast out. During the off-season, the demand for southern terminals continued to decrease, the market trading atmosphere was weak, and overall market shipments were slow, mainly due to continuous inventory reduction. It is expected that the seamless tube market will mainly experience a narrow and weak adjustment in the later stage.

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