SunSirs: Demand Weakened, and Imported Potassium Chloride Prices Plummeted by 11.53% in March

Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride significantly decreased in March. The price of potassium chloride dropped from around 2,675.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to 2,366.67 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 11.53% and a year-on-year decrease of 37.10%.

On March 28th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 75.13 points, a decrease of 1.06 points from the previous day, a decrease of 56.97% from the highest point in the cycle of 174.60 points (2022-06-21), and an increase of 28.98% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-03-01 present)

Analysis review

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors had dropped significantly this month: the distributor's price of potassium chloride of Zibo Zhongsheng at the end of the month was 2,500 RMB/ton, a decrease of 300 RMB/ton compared to the beginning of the month. At the end of the month, the distribution price of potassium chloride in Anhui Badou was 2,350 RMB/ton, a decrease of 450 RMB/ton compared to the beginning of the month. At the end of the month, Zibo Dehe's potassium chloride distribution quotation was 2,250 RMB/ton, a decrease of 250 RMB/ton compared to the beginning of the month. The monthly terminal price of potassium chloride in Qinghai Saltlake was around 2,200 RMB/ton; At the end of the month, 62% of the port's white potassium was around 2,200 RMB/ton, a decrease of about 100 RMB/ton compared to the beginning of the month; At the end of the month, the self delivery price of 60% bright red particles at the port was around 2,300-2,400 RMB/ton, a decrease of about 300 RMB/ton compared to the beginning of the month; At the end of the month, 62% of Russian white potassium in border trade was around 2,150 RMB/ton, a decrease of about 250 RMB/ton compared to the beginning of the month. There were approximately 3.7 to 3.8 million tons of potassium chloride stored in the port.

From the demand side, the market price of potassium carbonate had slightly declined this month, dropping from 7,330 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to 7,310 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.27%. The end of month price had decreased by 18.96% compared to the same period last year. The factory price of potassium nitrate had slightly decreased this month, dropping from 5,112.50 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to 5,062.50 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.98%. The price at the end of the month had decreased by 11.57% compared to the same period last year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride had slightly declined. Agricultural demand was average, industrial demand was weakening, and downstream manufacturers were less proactive in purchasing potassium chloride.

Market outlook

In mid to early April, the trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate slightly and fall, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in Saltlakes and Zangge were temporarily stable, and the market situation was average. Downstream agricultural demand was average, industrial demand weakened, and the price of potassium chloride may fluctuate and fall in the future.

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