SunSirs: China MTBE Market Continuously Rises

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market continues to rise. From March 1st to 8th, the price of MTBE increased from 6,625 RMB/ton to 6,762 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 2.08% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 3.44%, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.34%.

At the beginning of the week, the domestic MTBE market began to show an upward trend, with some large manufacturers starting to export and gather at ports, resulting in a significant reduction in resource supply. At the same time, some large manufacturers temporarily stopped production. Supported by the reduction in resource supply, the enthusiasm of manufacturers to push up prices further increased, and end operators moderately sought purchases, resulting in a significant upward trend in MTBE performance.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The prospect of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and signs of rising gasoline demand have supported oil prices. US crude oil inventories increased by 1.4 million barrels to 44,853 million barrels in the middle of the week, with the market estimating an increase of 2.1 million barrels. Guided by bearish news, crude oil has given up some of its gains. As of March 7th, the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $82.96 per barrel, with no increase or decrease.

On the demand side, in terms of gasoline, the performance of terminal demand is average, and gas station users tend to maintain a basic demand for gasoline replenishment; However, downstream users still maintain a small amount of procurement for diesel, with transactions mainly focused on intermediate trade. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, the temporary shutdown of Dongying Shenchi equipment has resulted in a decline in the operating rate of the equipment and a slight reduction in resource supply. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by favorable factors.

As of the close on March 7th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $5/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $899.99-901.99/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $11.5/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $1,060.24-1,060.74/ton. The closing price of the US MTBE market increased by 0.32 US dollars per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at 1,072.73-1,073.08 US dollars per ton (302.18-302.28 US cents per gallon).

In the future market forecast, the current price has risen to a certain high level, and the follow-up of gasoline terminal demand is not good. The cautious attitude of the industry has increased, and manufacturers have encountered cold shipments. MTBE analysts from SunSirs believe that the domestic MTBE market situation may consolidate and wait in the short term.

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