SunSirs: China MTBE Market Fluctuates and Rises

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market is at a high level of consolidation. From April 1st to 9th, the price of MTBE increased from 7,275 RMB/ton to 7,437 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 2.23% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 9.98%, and a year-on-year increase of 0.51%.

The domestic MTBE market is mainly characterized by fluctuations and rising prices, while international crude oil closing prices continue to rise due to rising geopolitical risks. At the same time, gasoline prices have also risen. At the same time, gasoline shipping orders have been well executed, and businesses have a high enthusiasm for purchasing related gasoline raw materials. MTBE manufacturers have smooth shipments, inventory levels continue to decline, and there are still sporadic export orders signed. Coupled with temporary shutdowns of some equipment, the overall multiple benefits are good. This week, the MTBE market actively drove up.

On the cost side, recent geopolitical factors have had a greater impact on international crude oil prices than fundamentals, forming a major guide for oil prices. The current market focus is on the latest developments in the Middle East situation, with the standoff between Iran and Israel remaining the focus. As of April 8th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $90.38 per barrel, a decrease of $0.79 or 0.9%.

On the demand side, in terms of gasoline, international crude oil futures prices have fluctuated higher, and the refined oil market is stable and rising. Refineries in the region are pushing up oil prices, and intermediaries are cautious in ordering. Downstream users just need to restock, and the market trading atmosphere is mild. The short-term demand for MTBE is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, facilities such as Dongying Qifa, Minghao Chemical, Taifa, and Yuhuang are still in shutdown, while the Lushenfa facility is shut down. However, Dongying Shenchi, Lihua Yidehydrogenation, Qingzhou Tianan, and Anqing Taifa facilities all have plans to start construction, and it is expected that resource supply will increase. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.

As of the close on April 8th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $7.5 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at $996.99- $998.99 per ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market has decreased by $13/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $1,173.74-1,174.24/ton. The closing price of the US MTBE market has decreased by $14.2/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $993.32-993.67/ton (279.81-279.91 cents/gallon).

In the future market forecast, there is an expectation of an increase in resource supply, and gasoline demand is relatively stable. Operators are purchasing MTBE on demand, but the current price has risen to a high level and encountered downstream resistance, resulting in a phased market correction. SunSirs MTBE analysts believe that the domestic MTBE market may consolidate and observe in the short term.

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