SunSirs: China Thermal Coal Price Fluctuated in February

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the price of thermal coal fluctuated in February. On March 1st, the energy index was 1,,013 points, a decrease of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 35.11% from the highest point in the cycle of 1,561 points (2021-10-21), and an increase of 98.24% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

The price of thermal coal fluctuated this month. Before the Spring Festival, coal mines began to have holidays one after another. Overall, the supply of coal from the main production areas has decreased, and due to rainy and snowy weather, transportation is not smooth. Currently, the demand for purchasing from terminal power plants is average, and the market activity is not high. The main focus is on implementing long-term coal contracts. After returning from the Spring Festival, coal mines have gradually resumed production, and most coal mines in the Ordos region of Inner Mongolia have maintained normal production and sales, with long-term cooperative shipping being the main focus. Rainy and snowy weather, transportation is not smooth, overall transportation is average, but some coal mines have good sales and prices have increased.

The National Bureau of Statistics recently released data showing that it has released the Statistical Bulletin on National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China in 2023. According to the Gazette, the total industrial added value for the whole year of 2023 was 39,910.3 billion RMB, an increase of 4.2% compared to the previous year. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.6%. By category, the mining industry grew by 2.3%, the manufacturing industry grew by 5.0%, and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries grew by 4.3%. Preliminary calculations show that the total annual primary energy production was 4.83 billion tons of standard coal, an increase of 4.2% compared to the previous year. Among them, 4.71 billion tons of raw coal were produced, an increase of 3.4%; 209.026 million tons of crude oil, an increase of 2.1%; Natural gas reached 232.43 billion cubic meters, an increase of 5.6%; The power generation reached 9,456.44 billion kilowatt hours, an increase of 6.9.

SunSirs analysts believe that the implementation of long-term cooperative shipping is the main focus in terms of origin, and the overall market consolidation is the main focus. In terms of downstream ports, the price of thermal coal is consolidating and operating. Power plants tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude and purchase according to demand. Entering March, the upstream coal mines mainly focus on safety production, and there may be expectations of tightening coal supply. However, the overall supply is currently relatively loose. In the later stage, as the temperature gradually rises, the demand for electricity coal consumption may be average, and the demand for non electricity industry replenishment will be released in stages. It is expected that the price of thermal coal will still remain stable, depending on the downstream market demand.

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