SunSirs: China Domestic LNG Fell Over 25% in February 2024

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of February 29th, the average price of LNG in China was 3,852 RMB/ton, which is 5,196 RMB/ton compared to the average price on February 1st. The decline in domestic LNG prices last month was 25.87%.

Last month, domestic LNG prices fell significantly, and the market rebounded and rose at the end of the month. Before the Spring Festival, due to the influence of rainy and snowy weather in many regions of China, transportation was not smooth and resource circulation was limited. As the holiday approaches, downstream work stoppages and holidays gradually increase, market demand weakens, and liquid prices continue to decline, resulting in a strong bearish sentiment in the market. The decrease in raw gas prices has weakened cost support. After the holiday, the domestic LNG market continued to be weak before the holiday, and prices continued to decline. Downstream enterprises are gradually resuming work, with slow release of terminal demand and poor trading atmosphere. The price drop in the breath is bearish for the domestic market, and the market has a strong willingness to ship. At the end of the month, as market demand gradually recovers, liquid prices begin to rise and low prices begin to rise. The bidding price for raw gas has increased, leading to increased cost support.

In February, domestic LNG prices experienced a significant decline, with the largest decline being -8.88% in the week of February 5th.

Raw gas situation

On February 28th, the bidding price for raw gas from PetroChina Northwest Liquid Plant (February 29th to March 10th) was 2.2-2.25 RMB/cubic meter, with a lower price increase of 0.22 RMB/cubic meter compared to the previous period and a higher price increase of 0.25 RMB/cubic meter compared to the previous period, resulting in a transaction of 105 million cubic meters and no unsold bids.

The LNG analyst from SunSirs believes that currently, the demand for LNG in the domestic market has recovered, and the enthusiasm for replenishment has increased. Combined with the increase in bidding prices for raw gas yesterday, which has boosted liquid prices, the market has a strong bullish mentality. It is expected that there is still room for domestic LNG prices to rise in the short term.

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