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SunSirs: The Future Prospects of PAM in 2024

February 18 2024 14:44:53     SunSirs (John)

Prediction of PAM market in 2024

Cost side:

Raw material vinyl cyanide: According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the vinyl cyanide market fluctuated widely in 2023. At the beginning of the year, the price was 9,600 RMB/ton, and at the end of the year, the price was 9,812 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.21% compared to the beginning of the year; The high point of the year was 10,800 RMB/ton, and the low point was 7,800 RMB/ton, with an amplitude of 38.46%.

As of the end of 2023, the total production capacity of vinyl cyanide in China reached 4.399 million tons/year, and the annual utilization rate of vinyl cyanide industry capacity was 73.11%. According to statistics, there are still three sets of new production capacity plans totaling 920,000 tons/year planned to be put into operation in China in 2024, with most of the production time in the second half of 2024. The increase in supply will put pressure on the vinyl cyanide market in 2024.

Raw Material Acrylic Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the average quoted price of acrylic acid in the East China region was 6,800 RMB/ton on January 1, 2023, and the average price of acrylic acid on December 31 was 6,187.50 RMB/ton, a decrease of 9.01% in the year's market. The lowest price point of the year was 5,825.00 RMB/ton on November 3rd, and the highest price point of the year was 8,200.00 RMB/ton on February 13th, with a maximum amplitude of 40.77%. In 2023, with the completion of the construction of the 180,000 ton acrylic acid plant for Zhejiang Satellite, China's acrylic acid production capacity expanded to 4.08 million tons, with a slight increase in production compared to 2022. Wanhua Chemical and Shandong Sanyue have plans to put new acrylic acid plants into operation in 2024, and the overall acrylic acid production capacity is expected to increase in 2024.

Supply side: China is the world's largest producer of PAM, and in recent years, the scale of China's PAM industry has continued to grow. In 2022, the production of PAM in China was 1.3623 million tons, with a demand of 1.1653 million tons. PAM in China is mainly a mid to low-end product, while high-end products still need to be imported.

Demand side: From the application scenarios of PAM, the petroleum extraction industry is the main downstream of PAM. About 42% of the total production of PAM in China is used for petroleum extraction, 31% for water treatment, 13% for the papermaking industry, and other industries such as coal washing and metallurgy account for 14%. As of 2023, the number of urban sewage treatment plants in China had exceeded 2,000, with a daily processing capacity of 170 million cubic meters. At the same time, more and more rural areas are starting to build sewage treatment facilities, further promoting the development of the industry.

Market outlook

At present, there is not much difference in supply and demand in China's PAM market. In 2024, the PAM market in China will still be greatly affected by upstream and downstream market conditions, and it is expected that the PAM market will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range.

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