SunSirs: China MTBE Market was in Consolidation

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market situation is being sorted and operated. From January 29th to February 2nd, the price of MTBE first rose from 6,487 RMB/ton and then fell to 6,475 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 0.19% during the cycle, the maximum amplitude of 0.38%, a month on month decrease of 0.96%, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.34%.

The domestic MTBE market has made sporadic adjustments, with some major manufacturers gathering at export ports, and the offer continues to be strong. With this support, other manufacturers are also not very willing to offer discounts. However, due to the approaching Spring Festival holiday, some manufacturers are arranging inventory, and may offer slight discounts during this period, but the extent is relatively limited.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: During the same period, a report released by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) on Wednesday (January 31) showed an increase in US crude oil and gasoline inventories, while distillate inventories decreased. As of February 1st, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $78.70 per barrel, a decrease of $1.85 or 2.5%.

On the demand side, in terms of gasoline, Shandong independent refinery 92# gasoline increased by 90 RMB/ton and closed at 8,460 RMB/ton. International crude oil futures have fluctuated downward, and the trend of refined oil prices in Shandong region is strong in gasoline and weak in diesel, with refineries selling at higher prices. The gasoline market is strong and rising, and businesses are highly motivated to purchase MTBE. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, facilities such as Dongying Qifa and Minghao Chemical are currently under shutdown, while Zhonghao Construction and Installation will be shut down on January 30th, resulting in a slight decrease in production. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by favorable factors.

As of the close on February 1st, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $12.49/ton compared to the previous trading day, while FOB Singapore closed at $890.99-892.99/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $2.25 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $1,005.24-1,005.74 per ton. The closing price of the US MTBE market has decreased by $12.92 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $1,014.33-1,014.69 per ton (285.73-285.83 cents per gallon).

According to future forecasts, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, terminal operators are coming to an end in replenishing inventory. At the same time, logistics vehicles will decrease next week, and freight rates will rise. The overall market transactions will gradually weaken. MTBE analysts from SunSirs believe that the domestic MTBE market will be weak and mainly consolidating in the short term.

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