SunSirs: Terminal Demand Support, China Local Refined Naphtha Market Continued to Rise in January

According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the market for locally refined and hydrogenated naphtha continued to rise in January. As of January 31, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 8,089.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 4.42% from 7,746.50 RMB/ton at the beginning of this month.

The market for locally refined straight run naphtha continued to rise in January. As of January 31st, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined straight run naphtha was 8,019.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 4.63% from 7,664.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of this month.

Product: In January, the price of ground refined naphtha continued to rise. Currently, the mainstream price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha is around 8,000-8,100 RMB/ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is around 7,900-8,000 RMB/ton. In January, the local refining terminal underwent restructuring and the ethylene sector had a strong demand for stock, with refineries actively pushing up prices and good transactions; At present, the overall weakness of the gasoline and diesel market has limited support for the naphtha market.

Upstream: The international crude oil price trend in January has been upward. On the one hand, the geopolitical situation has been disrupted, and the instability of the Middle East situation still exists. The market is concerned about supply issues, and crude oil prices are supported to rise. On the other hand, the North Dakota Pipeline Authority announced on Friday that about 30% of North Dakota's oil production is still closed due to extreme cold weather and operational challenges. In addition, the reduction of finished oil inventories in the United States, the approaching Chinese New Year, and strong demand during the holiday will boost the demand for crude oil. The combination of multiple positive factors has led to a significant increase in crude oil prices during the cycle.

Downstream: The toluene market continued to rise in January, and currently international crude oil prices are facing strong support, with support for the cost of toluene; Downstream demand support during the off-season is weak; The inventory of toluene at the port has increased and the production has slightly increased, but the pressure on the supply side of toluene remains. The mixed xylene market continued to rise in January, with strong international crude oil support and continued support for mixed xylene costs. However, domestic port inventories continued to increase, and demand for mixed xylene was weak. In the short term, the mixed xylene market was dominated by the influence of crude oil prices. In January, the price trend of para xylene increased, and the spot supply of para xylene was normal. The domestic PX operating rate remained above 80%, but there were still some equipment maintenance, and there was little change in spot supply.

Energy analysts from SunSirs believe that the international crude oil market is fluctuating and rising, and the cost of naphtha market is supporting; The demand for ethylene and reforming at the end of the ground refining naphtha terminal is high, and refineries are actively pushing for an increase. However, with the end of the Spring Festival stocking period and the arrival of rainy and snowy weather in the north, downstream demand is cautious. It is expected that the ground refining naphtha market will mainly consolidate at a high level in the near future.

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