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SunSirs: China Refined Naphtha Market Continued to Rise in March

April 03 2024 14:35:08     SunSirs (Selena)

According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the market for locally refined and hydrogenated naphtha continued to rise in March. As of March 31, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 8,401.50 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.31% from 8,211.50 RMB/ton at the beginning of this month.

The market for locally refined straight run naphtha continued to rise in March. As of March 31, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined straight run naphtha was 8,291.50 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.25% from 8,109.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of this month.

Product: The price of ground refined naphtha continued to rise in March. Currently, the mainstream price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha is around 8,400 RMB/ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is around 8,300 RMB/ton. The rise in international crude oil in March supported the naphtha market, with refineries actively pushing for an increase; The demand for downstream ethylene continues to be weak, and there is a lack of substantial positive news at the end. Market trading is mainly focused on the local refining and restructuring, and the market mentality is cautious.

Upstream: The crude oil market rose first and then fell in March, with a relatively stable performance in the first ten days. As of March 13th, international crude oil futures rose significantly, with a daily increase of nearly 3%. The main reason is that the US EIA inventory data is positive, coupled with Ukraine's attack on Russian refineries, geopolitical tensions have pushed up the risk premium of crude oil. In the latter half of the year, the crude oil market experienced a slight decline due to the strengthening of the US dollar combined with an increase in US crude oil inventories.

Downstream: The toluene market rose in March. Affected by the fluctuation and rise in international crude oil prices, the cost of toluene continues to support; After the holiday, the profit margin for downstream disproportionation has increased, supporting the demand for toluene; The decrease in port inventory has supported the upward trend of toluene. The mixed xylene market continued to rise slightly in March. The downstream polyester industry has strong support for the high starting point, but the support for the phthalic anhydride and blending industries is relatively weak; Multiple domestic devices are scheduled for maintenance in the later stage, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decrease. In February, the price trend of xylene increased, and the domestic xylene market had sufficient spot supply. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high, and overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is nearly 80%.

Energy analysts from SunSirs believe that the high international crude oil market is supported by the cost of the naphtha market; However, currently there is a lack of significant positive news for the local refining naphtha terminal. Downstream demand is cautious in chasing higher prices, with a focus on on-demand procurement. It is expected that the local refining naphtha market may consolidate at a high level in the near future.

 

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