SunSrs: China MTBE Market with Narrow Volatility

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market has been narrowly consolidated. From January 19th to 26th, the price of MTBE first fell from 6,445 RMB/ton and then rose to 6,487 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 0.66% during the cycle and a maximum amplitude of 1.96%, a month on month decrease of 0.27%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.60%.

The domestic MTBE market has experienced frequent fluctuations, with a weak performance at the beginning of the week and prices falling slightly. However, with the support of new export orders signed by Lihua Yi and Shouguang Luqing, as well as the rise in crude oil prices, the market will see a broad rise in the middle of the next week. However, after the price reaches a high level, the enthusiasm of the industry to purchase will slow down.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: During the same period, a report released by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) on Wednesday (January 24) showed that commercial crude oil and distillate inventories in the US decreased last week, while gasoline inventories increased. As of January 25th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $81.96 per barrel, an increase of $2.33 or 2.9%.

On the demand side, in terms of gasoline, international crude oil futures have fluctuated upwards, while the refined oil market in Shandong region has remained stable and upward. Refinery oil prices are cautiously pushing up. With the start of the Spring Festival travel rush, the number of people returning to their hometowns is gradually increasing, and terminal demand is gradually improving, leading to a warming market trading atmosphere. The gasoline market is steadily rising, and businesses have a high enthusiasm for purchasing MTBE. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, facilities such as Shenyang Waxing and Dongying Qifa are still in shutdown, while the operating load of the Qingzhou Tian'an facility has decreased. The Debao Road facility started construction on January 22nd. Minghao Chemical and Zhonghao Construction have plans to suspend production, and it is expected that there will be a moderate decrease in production. The market circulation resources will also decrease, which will have a positive impact on the short-term domestic MTBE supply.

As of the close on January 25th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $13.51/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at $898.99-900.99/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market has increased by $9/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $992.99-993.49/ton. The closing price of the US MTBE market increased by $18.5 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $1,023.99-1,024.34 per ton (288.45-288.55 cents per gallon).

In the future market forecast, there are plans to shut down some heterogeneous devices in the later stage, and there is an expectation of a reduction in resource supply. From the perspective of demand, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream businesses still have a certain demand for replenishment, and there is still a certain expectation of positive demand. MTBE analysts from SunSirs believe that there is a possibility of a narrow upward trend in the domestic MTBE market in the short term.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.