SunSirs: Repeatedly Hitting New Lows, China Soybean Meal Price Dropped to 3,500 RMB/ton

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, after New Year's Day, bearish factors dominated the domestic soybean meal market, which fluctuated and fell for more than half a month. Prices repeatedly hit new lows, dropping to around 3,500 RMB/ton, a drop of over 11%. On January 1st, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,962 RMB/ton. On January 18th, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,504 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 11.56%.

The oscillation and decline in the soybean meal market this round are mainly influenced by the following factors:

Supply side: The import of raw materials for soybeans remains high, and the quantity of imported soybeans continues to increase in the fourth quarter. In December, China's soybean import volume was 9.823 million tons, a month on month increase of 24.0%. In 2023, China's soybean imports reached 99.41 million tons, an increase of 11.4% year-on-year. Loose supply of raw materials, bearish sentiment suppressed, and the soybean meal market continued to decline weakly.

Inventory: According to the statistics of domestic soybean meal inventory from January to December, it can be seen that soybean meal inventory has been continuously increasing and rebounding since mid November. Entering December, the growth rate of soybean meal inventory accelerated, and by the end of the month, soybean meal inventory had reached a high of 840,000 tons. On the week of January 12, 2024, soybean meal inventory reached a new high, reaching 980,000 tons. Due to the doubling of inventory pressure, the rebound of soybean meal market is weak, and prices continue to decline.

Futures: Starting from January, with sufficient rainfall in South America and high soybean yields expected to dominate, the USDA report data is bearish and bearish, leading to a comprehensive decline in external soybean futures. Domestic soybean meal prices have continued to decline, oscillating for over half a month. As of January 18th, the settlement price of the main contract for soybean meal was 3,017 RMB/ton, a decrease of 7.39% from the beginning of January. The futures market is weakening, while the spot soybean meal market is under pressure, and the market continues to decline.

Demand side: With the end of the New Year holiday, terminal feed demand has declined, aquaculture is in the off-season, and pig inventory has decreased. The continuously sluggish soybean meal market has led feed companies to lack confidence in soybean meal, purchase cautiously, and use it as needed, resulting in slower market sales. The terminal demand continues to be weak, and the soybean meal market has been continuously falling and bottoming out.

SunSirs agricultural product analyst believes that the main reason for the decline in the soybean meal market this round is due to loose supply of imported raw materials, increased expectations of high yields of South American soybeans in the external market, sluggish terminal demand, and multiple bearish pressures. The soybean meal market continues to slide.

In late January, there were still bearish factors in the external market, and the loose supply situation was difficult to change in the short term. The soybean meal market was difficult to change its decline in the short term and will continue to hit the bottom.

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