SunSirs: Second Round of Coke Price Rises and Falls Landed (January 5-12)

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, from January 5th to January 12th, 2024, the second round of price increase and decrease in the coke market in Shanxi region was implemented. On January 12th, the ex factory price of quasi first grade metallurgical coke was 2,226.67 RMB/ton, a decrease of 4.37%.

In terms of supply: The coking coal market has been operating weakly recently, approaching the holiday season. Currently, most mining areas have basically completed the production tasks within the year, and have taken the initiative to limit production recently. The overall supply of coking coal is tight, and downstream coking enterprises have raised prices for two consecutive rounds. Currently, the overall market mentality is weak, and the purchasing intention of coking enterprises is low. The online auction performance during the week is not very good, with most auctions being unsold and some prices being reduced. The overall market sentiment is weak.

The second round of reduction in the coke market this week has been implemented, with a cumulative decrease of 200-220 RMB/ton so far. With the implementation of the second round of reduction, most coking enterprises are currently in losses, and coking enterprises are actively reducing production. The comprehensive operating rate of coking enterprises has declined this week, and downstream procurement intentions are low. Currently, there is a slight accumulation of coke inventory in the factory, and the mentality of enterprises is weak. In terms of demand, the finished product market has entered a seasonal off-season. With the end of winter storage, the overall production of steel mills has declined, and some enterprises are carrying out planned maintenance. The demand for steel mills to replenish inventory is relatively low, maintaining the basic demand for replenishing inventory. Overall, the current market atmosphere is relatively weak, with loose coke supply and weak downstream demand. It is expected that the overall market will operate weakly.

The coke market in Shandong port is operating weakly, with spot market prices slightly decreasing. The quasi first level outbound price at the port is around 2,300 RMB/ton, and the first level outbound price is 2,400 RMB/ton. The port market is operating weakly, with inventory at the two ports slightly declining. The enthusiasm of traders in the spot market to gather at the port is weak, and market trading is slightly sluggish, with actual transactions being relatively low. On the 12th, it costs 195 RMB/ton from Xiaoyi to Rizhao Port, and 180 RMB/ton from Jiexiu to Rizhao Port.

Freight prices are a barometer of port mentality. Market sentiment is positive when freight prices rise, but weak when freight prices fall. This week, the overall inventory at the port has declined, and the enthusiasm of traders to gather at the port has been low, resulting in a decrease in port freight prices.

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