SunSirs: Weak consolidation of China MTBE market

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market is experiencing a weak consolidation. From January 5th to 12th, the price of MTBE dropped from 6,575 RMB/ton to 6,487 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 1.33% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 0.95%, and a year-on-year increase of 1.17%.

After the MTBE price rose to a high level, manufacturers encountered a downturn in their shipments, with limited substantial positive support. Manufacturers offered narrow discounts on their shipments, and some manufacturers in certain regions such as Shandong ended their export ports and resumed export sales, resulting in an increase in resource supply. At the same time, Qingzhou Tian'an and Haite Weiye have gradually resumed production, and with an increase in current supply, the domestic MTBE market is operating in a narrow and weak range.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures prices have weakened and consolidated within the same period. The report released by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) on Wednesday showed an unexpected increase in commercial crude oil inventories in the US last week, with gasoline and distillate inventories growing higher than market expectations. As of January 11th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was reported at $77.41 per barrel, an increase of $0.61 or 0.8%.

On the demand side, in terms of gasoline, international crude oil futures are weak and volatile, and the refined oil market in Shandong region continues to be weak. Although there has been a brief rebound in the cycle, the overall trend is still in a downward channel. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, facilities such as Shenyang Wax Chemical, Dongying Qifa, and Debao Road are still in shutdown. Manufacturers such as Haite Weiye will continue to affect production next week after resuming production. At the same time, some manufacturers have increased their circulation resources after resuming export, and the domestic MTBE resource supply is still relatively abundant in the short term.

As of the close on January 11th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $1.5 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while FOB Singapore closed at $836.49-838.49 per ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $17.75 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $953.74-954.24 per ton. The closing price of the US MTBE market increased by $32.66/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $908.54-908.90/ton (255.93-256.03 cents/gallon).

According to future market forecasts, with the gradual commencement of construction by some manufacturers who have stopped production, and the resumption of normal export sales after the completion of export port collection by some manufacturers, there will still be a relatively high supply of resources in the short term. Downstream gasoline is in high demand for replenishment, and MTBE analysts from SunSirs believe that the domestic MTBE market is likely to remain stable, moderate, or weak in the short term.

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