SunSirs: China MTBE Market Fluctuates and Rises

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market is fluctuating and rising. From January 2nd to 5th, the price of MTBE increased from 6,537 RMB/ton to 6,575 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 0.57% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 0.77%, and a year-on-year increase of 1.94%.

After New Year's Day, inventory was depleted, and merchants actively pushed up prices. Low price resources were difficult to find, and manufacturers shipped smoothly. At the same time, international crude oil closed slightly warmer, and manufacturers had a strong intention to raise prices. In addition, inventory pressure was not high, and domestic MTBE quotations continued to be strong.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures prices have slightly rebounded and consolidated within the same period. As of January 4th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $77.59 per barrel, a decrease of $0.66 or 0.8%.

On the demand side, in terms of gasoline, the refined oil market first suppressed and then rose. During the New Year's Day period, the purchasing and sales atmosphere in the oil market in the region was light, and refineries reduced prices to promote sales. Returning after the holiday, with mid to downstream merchants entering the market to restock, refineries took advantage of the improvement in shipments and the rise in crude oil prices to push prices. In terms of terminal demand for gasoline, due to seasonal demand, gasoline may remain relatively strong, and businesses still have a certain level of purchasing enthusiasm for MTBE. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, facilities such as Shenyang Wax Chemical, Dongying Qifa, Haite Weiye, Debao Road, and Qingzhou Tianan are still in shutdown. Qingzhou Tianan Installation has plans to start construction, and the short-term supply of MTBE resources will increase.

As of the close on January 4th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $27.24/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at $856.48-858.48/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market has increased by $3/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $933.74-934.24/ton. The closing price of the US MTBE market has decreased by $17.04 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $891.08-891.43 per ton (251.01-251.11 cents per gallon).

In the future market, it is predicted that early maintenance companies will soon start construction, and there will be negative factors in the supply side. However, export ports in some areas can alleviate the supply pressure. Meanwhile, due to seasonal demand, gasoline may remain relatively strong, which has a positive impact on MTBE. SunSirs MTBE analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic MTBE market will remain strong and mainly consolidate.

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