SunSirs: China Refined Naphtha Market Fluctuated and Declined in December 2023

According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, as of December 30th, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7,746.50 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.46% from 7,941.50 RMB/ton at the beginning of this month, and the market for refined hydrogenated naphtha has fluctuated downward.

As of December 30th, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined straight run naphtha was 7,664.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.98% from 7,899.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of this month, and the market for locally refined straight run naphtha has fluctuated downward.

Product: In December, the price of ground refined naphtha fluctuated downward. Currently, the mainstream price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha is around 7,700-7,900 RMB/ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is around 7,600-7,800 RMB/ton. Affected by the rainy and snowy weather in the north in the first half of December, logistics were affected, and market trading was light; In the second half of December, terminal demand procurement was the main focus, with no substantial improvement in fundamentals. The overall demand for naphtha terminals was weak, with average trading volume, and refineries reduced prices for shipments.

Upstream: In December, the international crude oil price trend fluctuated downward, geopolitical factors eased, and shipping in the Red Sea region resumed. As a result, international oil prices have fallen. Inflation pressure still exists, and crude oil demand is poor. Currently, the demand for oil products in Europe and America is in the off-season, which has suppressed crude oil prices. The results of the OPEC+ production policy meeting did not meet market expectations, and the reduction in production was less than expected; The voluntary nature of the reduction in production is questionable, and the supply side will face greater pressure in the future.

Downstream: In December, the toluene market was weak and slightly declined. At the beginning of the month, it was affected by a significant drop in international crude oil prices, causing a significant drop in the cost of toluene; Although international crude oil prices have rebounded significantly in the later stage, the demand for toluene is insufficient, coupled with the continuous increase in port inventories, the price trend is under pressure and fluctuates narrowly. In December, the mixed xylene market first fell and then rose, showing an overall downward trend. Currently, the domestic mixed xylene market is in the off-season, and downstream inquiries are light. The demand for mixed xylene continues to weaken. In December, the price trend of para xylene increased, and the spot supply of para xylene was normal. The domestic PX operating rate remained above 80%, but there were still some equipment maintenance, and there was little change in spot supply.

Energy analysts from SunSirs believe that the international crude oil market is volatile, increasing the wait-and-see sentiment in the naphtha market; The domestic gasoline and diesel market has entered the off-season, and there is no significant positive effect on the terminal of refined naphtha; After the holiday, some companies may replenish their essential goods, but merchants are cautious in chasing higher prices. It is expected that the refined naphtha market in the post holiday area will mainly consolidate.

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