SunSirs: China Methanol Market Rebounds and Fluctuates

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from November 26th to December 6th (as of 3:00 pm), the average price of methanol in the domestic methanol market in East China ports rebounded and fluctuated, with prices rising from 2,435 RMB/ton to 2,440 RMB/ton. The price increased by 0.17% within the cycle, with a maximum amplitude of 3.08%, a month on month decrease of 1.68%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.67%. The plan for external procurement of olefin units in the northwest region has shown positive demand, coupled with the maintenance plan for methanol units in the southwest, which has provided favorable fundamentals and supported the upward trend of the domestic methanol market.

As of the close on December 6th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract of methanol futures, 2401, opened at 2,425 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,465 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,423 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,432 RMB/ton at the end of the trading day, an increase of 3% or 0.12% compared to the previous trading day's settlement. The trading volume was 970,250 lots, and the position was 594,397 lots, with a daily increase of -59,063.

On the cost and supply side, global coal supply remains stable, domestic imports have increased, and the increase in domestic demand is not sufficient to support coal prices at high levels; In terms of demand, the overall pressure on inventory in power plants is relatively low. Currently, the terminal mainly relies on long-term replenishment and replenishes inventory according to demand. The demand for coal in the market is relatively flat, and the overall sentiment is wait-and-see. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the demand side, stable production in the acetic acid and MTBE industries; Downstream formaldehyde: The formaldehyde industry saw a significant decrease in operating rates due to the reduction of load on Shandong Hengying equipment and the shutdown of Puyang Pengxin equipment; Downstream Dimethyl Ether: The Dimethyl Ether Industry's Jiujiang Xinlian Dimethyl Ether Plant has been put into operation, and the industry's operating rate has increased. The demand for methanol is mixed.

On the supply side, maintenance of a set of equipment in Yunnan Qumei, Jiangsu Sopu, Hebei Huafeng, and Ningxia; Jiutai New Materials (Tuoxian), Qitaihe Longpeng, and a set of facilities in Ningxia have reduced production. Xinjiang Guanghui, Shanxi Coking, Datang Duolun, Inner Mongolia Jiuding, and Jiangsu Sopu facilities have been restored. The overall recovery amount is greater than the loss amount, so the capacity utilization rate has increased this week. The supply side of methanol is affected by bearish factors.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on December 5th, the closing price of methanol in the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market was 338.00 to 339.00 US dollars per ton. The closing price of methanol in the US Gulf methanol market is 107.00-108.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of the FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 348.75-349.75 euros/ton.

In the future market forecast, there is abundant supply, and the contraction of traditional downstream expectations will lead to a weakening of the demand side. The methanol analyst from SunSirs predicts that the domestic methanol market will mainly consolidate.

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