SunSirs: Narrow Fluctuations in China Asphalt Market

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the asphalt market is experiencing a unilateral decline. From November 28th to December 5th, the price of asphalt in Shandong region increased from 3,447 RMB/ton to 3,459 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.34%, a month on month decrease of 9.03%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.14%. The long-term winter storage of asphalt is gradually landing, and the enthusiasm of futures and traders to purchase goods is high, with spot prices mainly maintaining large stability and small increases.

On the supply side, in terms of major production enterprises, Panjin Beili has slightly reduced production, Hebei Kaiyi has stopped production, Qilu Petrochemical has intermittently stopped production, Yangtze Petrochemical and Jiangsu Xinhai have intermittently stopped production, and Jingbo Hainan has intermittently stopped production. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has decreased compared to the previous month, which has had a positive impact on the supply side.

On the cost side, the international crude oil futures market is experiencing weak fluctuations. According to a report released by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA), inventories of US crude oil, gasoline, and distillates have all increased. As of the close on December 4th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $78.03/barrel, a decrease of $0.85 or 1.1%.

On the demand side, the main demand is in various regions, with small transactions being the main focus. The demand side of the asphalt market is influenced by bearish factors.

As of the close on December 5th, the main asphalt contract 2402 opened at 3,610 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 3,628 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 3,585 RMB/ton. It closed at 3,599 RMB/ton in the end, a decrease of 53 RMB/ton from the previous trading day's settlement, a decrease of 1.45%. The trading volume was 98,404 lots, the position was 124,315 lots, and the daily increase was -6,273 lots.

In the future market forecast, prices at the bottom of the market will remain stable and rise slightly. Asphalt analysts from SunSirs predict that the domestic asphalt market will continue to consolidate and operate.

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