SunSirs: Demand Was Weak and the Tin Ingot Market Was Operating to Be Weaker (November 27-December 4)

Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the 1# tin ingot market in East China fell first and then rose this week (11.27-12.4). The average market price at the beginning of last week was 201,010 RMB/ton, while the average market price at the beginning of this week was 200,460 RMB/ton, a weekly decrease of 0.27%.

Analysis review

From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices had been continuously rising for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, prices had fallen by 11.35% in a single month, and the trend of tin prices had fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market had seen more declines and less gains in recent times.

In the early stage, the tin market was affected by a sufficient supply of imported goods, and prices continued to decline. As prices declined, downstream entry was active, and market transactions were good. The decline in inventory boosted tin prices, which rose on Friday night and continued to rise on Monday morning. Shanghai tin closed up 1.83%.

In terms of supply and demand, the overall operating rate of smelters was relatively stable. However, with the increase of imported tin ingot sources, the overall supply of domestic tin ingots was relatively sufficient, and inventory was relatively high.

In terms of demand, there had been little change in terminal consumption recently, and the overall trend was still weak. However, with the recent decline in tin prices, downstream market entry enthusiasm had increased, actively replenishing inventory, and purchasing intentions were still acceptable.

Market outlook

Overall, the tin ingot market had recently seen loose supply and weak demand, and it is expected to remain stable and weaker in the short term. However, the spot market has recently seen good transactions, and the downward space for tin prices is also limited.

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