SunSirs: Supply-Demand Game, Weak Consolidation of ABS Market in China

In November, the domestic ABS market trend tended to narrow consolidation, with spot prices of various brands stabilizing slightly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of December 1st, the average price of ABS sample products was 11,137.50 RMB/ton, with an increase or decrease of +0.11% compared to the average price level in early November.

In terms of supply: In November, the domestic ABS industry maintained a high load, with an average monthly operating rate of 75%, a narrow increase compared to the previous period. The production of the enterprise is stable, and the new equipment of Yinglishi Benling will be put into operation within the month, resulting in a steady increase in inventory. The on-site supply of goods is abundant, and the company's losses continue. The supply pressure is relatively high, and the supply side continues to drag the spot market.

In terms of raw materials: In November, the three upstream ABS materials showed mixed fluctuations, with the acrylonitrile market rising first and then falling. The price of raw materials fluctuated slightly and rose, while the cost support for acrylonitrile slightly strengthened; The main downstream operations are stable; The load of acrylonitrile units has slightly decreased, and there is basically no pressure on the supply and demand side. The acrylonitrile market is supported by urgent inquiries, and prices have stabilized at high levels.

The domestic butadiene market fell at the end of the month after a stalemate in November. In the early stage, there was equipment maintenance in the northern region, causing a contraction in the market's spot supply and a rebound in merchant quotations. In the second half of the month, some devices will restart and the market will be flooded with goods. The frequent news of parking and load reduction by terminal enterprises has increased the drag on demand, hindered transactions in the butadiene market, and lowered the focus of the market.

The market price of styrene gradually declined in November. The main reason for the decline is that international oil prices have been affected by Russia's tariff policies and OPEC's production reduction, resulting in weakened cost support. At present, the supply and demand of styrene are deadlocked, and transactions are slow. It is expected that the styrene market will experience short-term fluctuations and decline.

In terms of demand: This month, downstream factories of ABS, including the main terminal home appliance industry, showed average stocking enthusiasm and overall focused on digesting existing inventory. The operation of enterprises tends to maintain production, making it difficult for demand to increase, and the impact on price trends is not significant.

The overall performance of ABS upstream materials in November was poor, with weak support for the cost side of ABS. The construction of petrochemical plants has generally maintained its early stage, and supply pressure continues. The demand side consumption is poor, and merchants are often bearish about the future market. It is expected that the supply-demand contradiction pattern of ABS market will be difficult to change in the short term, and may maintain a weak consolidation trend.

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