SunSirs: The Price of Thermal Coal first Fell and then Rose in China Last Week (November 20-24)

According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of thermal coal first fell and then rose last week. On November 23, the energy index was 1,006 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 35.55% from the highest point in the cycle of 1,561 points (2021-10-21), and an increase of 96.87% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

In terms of origin, most coal mines in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi maintain normal production, and coal supply is relatively stable. Some coal mines have already stopped for maintenance due to the completion of this month's production plan. Individual coal mines adjust coal prices up and down based on sales.

In terms of downstream ports, coal prices at ports increased in the middle and later part of this week. Mainly due to cooling and winter storage, market sentiment has increased. However, some traders believe that downstream demand is limited, and price increases lack favorable support. The market is mainly cautious in its operations.

The latest data from the General Administration of Customs shows that in October 2023, China imported 26.49 million tons of thermal coal (including brown coal, other bituminous coal, and other coal, the same below), a year-on-year increase of 19.01% and a month on month decrease of 12.28%. From January to October 2023, a total of 287 million tons of imported thermal coal were imported, an increase of 118 million tons year-on-year or 69.91%.

SunSirs analysts believe that in terms of origin, coal mines have been operating normally recently. In terms of downstream ports, prices slightly increased after last week's price reduction. As the weather cools down, the demand for thermal coal from power plants increases, but overall demand may be limited, so there may be limited room for growth. Specifically, it depends on downstream market demand.

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