SunSirs: Terminal Restructuring Rigid Demand, China Refining Naphtha Fluctuates and Rises

According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, as of November 20th, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 8,034.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.82% compared to November 13th at 7,969.00 RMB/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 7,900-8,100 RMB/ton.

As of November 20th, the mainstream factory average price of locally refined straight-run naphtha in China was 7,971.50 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.98% compared to 7,894.00 RMB/ton on November 13th. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight-run naphtha was around 7,800-8,000 RMB/ton.

Last week, the market for refined naphtha has fluctuated and risen, and the gap in terminal restructuring is just in need of trading. The benefits are limited, and the current operating rate of the refinery is low, so it is actively shipping.

Upstream: The international crude oil market has been fluctuating and declining recently. On the one hand, the rebound in OPEC exports has put pressure on oil prices. Due to the seasonal decline in internal demand in the Middle East region, its export share has increased. Data shows that OPEC crude oil exports have increased by about 1 million barrels per day since reaching a low point in August, which to some extent alleviated the pressure of supply tightening caused by the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East in the market. On the other hand, there are still concerns about the current level of inflation in the United States, indicating that the Federal Reserve may still raise interest rates in the future, causing the US dollar to rise and putting pressure on the prices of commodities such as crude oil and gold denominated in US dollars. On the last hand, the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, coupled with market concerns about demand in the Asian region.

Downstream: According to monitoring by SunSirs, the price of toluene has slightly declined, with a price of 6,800 RMB/ton on November 20th, a decrease of 0.58% compared to 6,840 RMB/ton on November 13th; The price of mixed xylene has declined, with a price of 7,120 RMB/ton on November 20th, a decrease of 1.79% compared to 7,250 RMB/ton on November 13th. The price trend of PX is temporarily stable, and as of November 20th, the domestic ex factory price of xylene is 8,700 RMB/ton.

Energy analysts from SunSirs believe that the international crude oil market is volatile, with limited cost support for the naphtha market. The gasoline and diesel market has entered the off-season, and there is no significant benefit for the local refining naphtha terminal. Market trading is limited, and it is expected that the local refining naphtha market will be mainly volatile in the near future.

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