SunSirs: Weak Performance of Thermal Coal Prices Last Week (November 13-17)

According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of thermal coal was weak last week. On November 16th, the energy index stood at 1,003 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 35.75% from the highest point of 1,561 points in the cycle (2021-10-21), and an increase of 96.28% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

In terms of origin, the overall supply of long-term coal in the production area is mainly guaranteed, and the price of coal at the pit mouth is mixed. Although there have been ups and downs in pit prices, they have not entered a downward channel as a whole, and the overall price consolidation is the main trend.

In terms of downstream ports, port prices are still experiencing a slight downward trend. Downstream demand has not shown a significant improvement, with low trading volume and some traders pushing prices. However, downstream procurement is average, and the future price trend is still unclear.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently, coal prices across the country mainly fell in early November. The specific price changes of each coal type are as follows: The price of anthracite (washed in lump, with volatile content≤8%) is 1,290.0 RMB/ton, a decrease of 93.9 RMB/ton compared to the previous period, a decrease of 6.8%. The price of ordinary mixed coal (a mixture of Shanxi fine coal and lump coal with a calorific value of 4,500 kcal) is 708.8 RMB/ton, a decrease of 27.9 RMB/ton or 3.8% compared to the previous period. The price of Shanxi Dachun (a high-quality coal blend with a calorific value of 5,000 kcal) was 825.8 RMB/ton, a decrease of 47.5 RMB/ton or 5.4% compared to the previous period. The price of Shanxi Youmian (high-quality blended coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal) is 952.5 RMB/ton, a decrease of 37.8 RMB/ton or 3.8% compared to the previous period.

Analysts from SunSirs believe that the recent rise and fall of coal mines in terms of production areas are mixed. In terms of downstream ports, prices have recently slightly declined, and downstream power plants are still mainly purchased according to demand. It is expected that the prices of thermal coal in the later stage will be mainly subject to weak consolidation and operation, depending on the downstream market demand.

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