SunSirs: Affected by Bearish Factors, the Trend of China Local Gasoline and Diesel Refining Seclined in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic refined gasoline and diesel prices fell in October. As of the end of the month, the domestic 92# gasoline price was 8,194.2 RMB/ton, a decrease of 9.84% compared to the beginning of the month; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 7,645.5 RMB/ton, a decrease of 5.30% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cost side: Insufficient cost support for October crude oil decline

Crude oil prices fell in October, with insufficient news support; During the Double Festivals period in China, crude oil prices significantly decreased, and oil prices rebounded after the festival. Geopolitical issues continue to affect the crude oil market, causing significant fluctuations in the crude oil market. As of the 30th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 82.31 US dollars per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 86.35 RMB per barrel. Recently, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has become the main factor affecting the crude oil market, which is currently limited to two countries, Not spreading to neighboring countries, coupled with the announcement by the United States of a suspension of sanctions on OPEC member states, macroeconomic pressure and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike have not yet been determined. The peak oil season in North America has gradually ended, and the bearish demand has correspondingly suppressed the crude oil market. Overall, the trend of the crude oil market in October has significantly declined, which has affected domestic product oil prices.

Supply side: High operating rate, relatively loose supply side

Recently, the operating load of refineries in China has exceeded 70%, and the utilization rate of atmospheric and vacuum capacity in refineries in China has remained at a high level. The operating rate of refineries in Shandong is around 63%. Although the operating rate of refineries in Shandong has slightly decreased, overall, the supply of refined oil products in Shandong is relatively loose; The main domestic refineries maintain high load operation and loose supply, which to some extent undermines the domestic refined oil market prices and leads to a decline in the price trend of gasoline and diesel.

Demand side: Strong market wait-and-see sentiment, less than expected demand

In terms of gasoline, after the end of the Double Festival, there is no short-term holiday support, and the frequency of self driving and driving radius have decreased. The demand for gasoline has decreased, and some businesses are moderately restocking on dips. The purchasing sentiment is not positive, and some refineries have increased their inventory, resulting in a significant decline in gasoline. In terms of diesel, the construction of outdoor infrastructure, engineering, and other projects has maintained a high level, coupled with the support of demand for open sea fishing and agricultural autumn harvests, logistics and transportation have shown active negative performance. However, the high oil prices in the early stage have limited transactions, and some manufacturers have mainly consumed inventory due to bearish sentiment in the later stage. The diesel market has correspondingly declined, but the decline is relatively small.

Short term mainland factors are still the main factor affecting oil prices, with little change in crude oil supply. Recently, US crude oil inventories have also been at historical lows, which will still have a stabilizing effect on oil prices. The news is mainly affected by fluctuations in the international oil price range. In terms of domestic supply, the operating rate of local refineries remains high, and the supply is relatively loose. There is a lack of demand support for gasoline, and there may still be a slight downward trend in the later stage; The demand for diesel is guaranteed, and it is expected that the diesel market may fluctuate.

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