SunSirs: Mixed Fundamentals, China PC Prices Rises and Falls in September

According to the bulk list data of SunSirs, the domestic PC market fluctuated narrowly in September, with spot prices of various brands rising and then falling back. As of September 30th, the mixed benchmark price of Shangshang Society PC was around 16,966.67 RMB/ton, a decrease of -0.20% compared to the beginning of the month.

In terms of raw materials: From the above figure, it can be seen that the domestic bisphenol A market rose first and then declined in September. In the first half of the month, the main positive focus was on the upward focus of the phenol/acetone market in the upstream of the industrial chain, with high support, while the spot resources in the supply side market were tight. But in the middle of the month, the cost side turned around and fell, with bisphenol A falling sharply upstream to around 11,250-11,500 RMB/ton, which initially strengthened and then weakened the annual support for PC costs.

On the supply side: Since September, the overall operating rate of domestic PCs has gradually increased, and the industry load has increased from below 57% at the beginning of the month to over 68% at the end of the month. During this period, some maintenance devices returned to work, and with Wanhua's resumption of work approaching and Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance being delayed, the supply of goods on site increased, and there are still expectations of an increase after the holiday. Corporate confidence has been affected, with loose factory pricing and a gradual weakening of support for spot prices.

In terms of demand: September is the traditional peak season for PC consumption, and at the beginning of the month, the stocking demand of terminal enterprises was released as scheduled. In addition, there was a certain level of chasing up buying at that time, and the market momentum was good in the first ten days. However, the starting position of terminal enterprises was not high during the month, and the benefits of the pre holiday stocking boom were gradually exhausted. Coupled with the concerns of the market, the demand side had poor support for spot prices at the end of the month.

In September, the PC market first rose and then fell, with a relatively small overall increase and decrease. The upstream bisphenol A market has turned from strong to weak, reducing support for PC costs. The load of domestic polymerization plants has increased, leading to an increase in spot supply in the market. At the end of the month, traders had a weak mentality and their offers tended to be flexible. Downstream enterprises' stocking ended before the holiday, and their enthusiasm for receiving goods was poor. It is expected that the PC market may enter a weak consolidation trend in early October.

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