SunSirs: This Week, the Prices of Rebar and Wire Rod Rose First and Then Fell (September 18-22)

Price trend

According to price monitoring by SunSirs, the prices of rebar and wire rods in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai regions rose first and then fell this week. As of the 22nd, the average price of HRB400 thread steel in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai regions was about 3,751.78 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.41% compared to the beginning of the week; The average price of HPB300 high line in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai regions was 3,927.2 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.2% compared to the beginning of the week.

Analysis review

Market aspect: As the weekend approached, the national engineering demand was 59,316 tons, a 17.49% decrease compared to the previous trading day. From January to August, the national investment in real estate development reached 7,690 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 8.8%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises' houses was 8,064.15 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%. Among them, the construction area of residential buildings was 567.792 million square meters, a decrease of 7.3%. The newly constructed area of houses was 638.91 million square meters, a decrease of 24.4%. Among them, the newly constructed residential area was 466.36 million square meters, a decrease of 24.7%. The completed area of houses was 437.26 million square meters, an increase of 19.2%. Among them, the completed residential area was 317.75 million square meters, an increase of 19.5%.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in August 2023, China exported 8.282 million tons of steel, an increase of 974,000 tons compared to the previous month and a month on month increase of 13.4%; From January to August, a total of 58.785 million tons of steel were exported, a year-on-year increase of 28.4%. From the data, the domestic steel export volume had reversed its two consecutive months of decline and reached the second highest level within the year.

Inventory and Production: This week, the weekly production of rebar increased, the weekly production of wire rods had decreased, and the total inventory of wire rod and rebar had slightly decreased.

On the upstream side, the first round of increase in the coke market of 100-110 RMB/ton had been basically implemented; The fluctuation of port iron ore was weaker; The scrap steel market was generally stable. Recently, with the gradual implementation of macroeconomic benefits, expectations had been fulfilled, while spot demand had not significantly improved, suppressing the upper space. Although it had entered the traditional consumption peak season, the overall transaction performance was relatively repetitive, and demand had not improved yet. At the same time, supply was also at a low level, and the weak pattern of supply and demand continued.

Market outlook

With the implementation of policy benefits, the market's operational logic may shift towards supply and demand, but with no significant improvement in demand, it is expected that the market will maintain a volatile pattern.

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