SunSirs: The Price of Thermal Coal was relatively Strong Last Week (September 11-15)

According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the overall price of thermal coal was relatively strong last week. On September 14th, the energy index stood at 1,020 points, an increase of 3 points from yesterday, a decrease of 34.66% from the cycle's highest point of 1,561 points (2021-10-21), and an increase of 99.61% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

In terms of origin, the coal mines in the production area maintain normal production, and the market mainly relies on long-term coal transportation, with stable coal supply. The current market is operating steadily, but with the increase in port prices, the sentiment at the port has warmed up, with prices rising by 10-20 RMB/ton.

In terms of downstream ports, port prices have risen and the market is operating. The current market demand for goods is increasing, and there are fewer available resources at ports, resulting in an increase in the price of thermal coal. The non electricity demand is better than before, but overall it is mainly wait-and-see.

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently, the prices of all coal types nationwide increased in early September. The specific price changes of each coal type are as follows: The price of anthracite (washed in lump, volatile content ≤ 8%) is 1,358.3 RMB/ton, an increase of 6.8 RMB/ton or 0.5% compared to the previous period. The price of ordinary mixed coal (a mixture of Shanxi fine coal and lump coal with a calorific value of 4,500 kcal) is 658.6 RMB/ton, an increase of 43.6 RMB/ton or 7.1% compared to the previous period. The price of Shanxi Dachun (a high-quality mixed coal with a calorific value of 5,000 kcal) is 761.9 RMB/ton, an increase of 47.0 RMB/ton or 6.6% compared to the previous period. The price of Shanxi Youmian (high-quality blended coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal) is 862.7 RMB/ton, an increase of 42.6 RMB/ton or 5.2% compared to the previous period.

Analysts from SunSirs believe that the coal mines in terms of origin maintain normal production, and the market mainly focuses on shipping Changxie coal. In terms of downstream ports, prices have slightly increased recently, but due to the cooling weather in the later stage, the daily consumption of power plants has decreased. Downstream procurement is still mainly based on demand, with limited demand from non electric enterprises. It is expected that the main focus will be on consolidation and operation after the rise of thermal coal prices in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

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