SunSirs: Strong Wait-and-see Sentiment in Downstream, China Petroleum Coke Rises and Falls

According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, as of September 11th, the price of refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1,939.00 RMB/ton, which was stable compared to September 1st.

On September 11th, the petroleum coke commodity index was 150.81, a decrease of 0.78 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 63.10% from the highest point of 408.70 points in the cycle (2022-05-11), and an increase of 125.46% from the lowest point of 66.89 points on March 28th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 30th, 2012 to the present)

The international crude oil market has recently risen. OPEC+, an oil producing country, is rumored to have extended production cuts. The market expects an additional 1 million barrels of production reduction from Saudi Arabia to continue until December, while Russia's crude oil production reduction will continue until December. Supply tightening is expected to continue to ferment and boost the oil market; In addition, the weakening of the US dollar has led to a rebound in oil market valuations and the potential impact of storms in the US Gulf on energy supply, which is a positive factor supporting international oil prices.

Supply side: Imported coke continues to arrive at the port for refining petroleum coke, and the shipment is average

During this cycle, imported petroleum coke from domestic ports continued to arrive at the port, and import traders were active in shipping, with fast shipping speed. The storage of petroleum coke at the port continued to decrease. The overall shipment of local refining petroleum coke is average, and downstream procurement is mainly based on demand. The price of local refining petroleum coke fluctuates with each other.

Demand side: The demand for petroleum coke from metal silicon continues to increase, with electrolytic aluminum mainly purchased on demand

Recently, the metal silicon market has been boosted by price hikes from major factories in Xinjiang, and spot prices have continued to strengthen. As of September 7th, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has reached 380, with an overall furnace opening rate of 52.13%, an increase of 3 units compared to the previous month. The speed of resuming production and putting into production in the main production areas has accelerated, and the overall pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. The operating rate of metal silicon continues to rise, and the demand for petroleum coke procurement continues to increase.

Recently, the overall stability of the medium to high calcined coke market has been the main trend. With the resumption of production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the southwest region, the current production capacity is at a relatively high level. At present, the resumption of production in Yunnan region has come to an end. Although the current production capacity is relatively high, the proportion of aluminum water is still high, and the supply of aluminum ingots is still tight. The demand for electrolytic aluminum petroleum coke is mainly based on demand procurement. The market for graphite electrodes and carburetors remains stable, with primary demand for replenishment.

Currently, the overall trading volume of refined petroleum coke in Shandong is average, and the domestic petroleum coke market is abundant in supply. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment has increased, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. It is expected that the refining of petroleum coke in the near future may be dominated by fluctuations and consolidation.

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