SunSirs: Both Supply and Demand Were Weak, and Tin Prices Were Fluctuating (August 28-September 4)

Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the 1# tin ingot market in the East China region fell first and then rose this week (August 28th –September 4th). On August 28th, the average market price was 216,460 RMB/ton, and on September 4th, the average market price was 217,310 RMB/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.39%.

From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices had risen continuously for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, the price had dropped by 11.35% per month, and the trend of tin prices had fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market had been rising for nine consecutive weeks, with a slightly volatile operation in late July.

Analysis review

In terms of the futures market, the recent macro trend was good, with the overall domestic and international environment warming, inflation in the United States falling, expectations for interest rate hikes lowered, and the external market showing a good trend. The domestic side continued to release heavyweight positive news, with economic expectations improving and overall macroeconomic performance improving, driving the metal market up. The metal market had generally risen this week, while tin prices had only slightly increased due to the drag of fundamentals.

The weak supply and demand situation had dragged down the upward trend of tin prices. There were many news on the supply side in the Wa region recently, but domestic market insiders generally believed that the real impact of Myanmar's mining ban on the market might be after September. Fundamentally speaking, the recent rebound in domestic refinery operations led to a buildup of inventory in the domestic society. In terms of demand, downstream buyers still purchased according to demand, buying at low prices, and demand tended to be rigid.

Market outlook

Overall, the supply and demand in the tin market were still weak, and the market sentiment was on the wait-and-see side. It is expected that the market will continue to maintain a weaker and volatile trend in the future without the influence of external news. The recent market fluctuations mainly followed macro factors, and the latest developments in Myanmar's mining ban news will continue to be monitored in the future.

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