SunSirs: China Local Refining Petroleum Coke showed an M-shaped Trend in August

According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries in August was 1,929.00 RMB/ton as of August 1st, 1,939.00 RMB/ton as of August 31st, with a monthly increase of 0.52%.

On August 30th, the petroleum coke commodity index was 152.37, a decrease of 0.77 points from yesterday, a decrease of 62.72% from the cycle's highest point of 408.70 points (2022 May 11), and an increase of 127.79% from the lowest point of 66.89 points on March 28th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 30th, 2012 to the present)

In August, crude oil emerged from a trend of rising and falling, and in the first half of the year, the market continued to rise amidst supply concerns and the positive trend of the peak oil consumption season. Brent crude oil topped $87 per barrel, while WTI crude oil approached $83, reaching a nearly 9-month high. Afterwards, with the deterioration of macro data, the market turned sharply downwards, and near the end of the month, the WTI fell below $80. Under the combined effect of OPEC+production control and weak economic data in oil producing countries, the supply-demand game intensifies, and the market shifts into a narrow range of fluctuations.

On the supply side: In August, import traders were active in shipping, with fast shipping speed, and the inventory of imported petroleum coke ports decreased. The overall shipment of local refining petroleum coke is good, and currently the supply of petroleum coke in the refinery is relatively sufficient. The refinery is actively shipping, and the price of local refining petroleum coke is mixed.

On the demand side: Metal silicon rose by over 6% in August, and the overall market is fluctuating upwards. As of August 25th, there were 372 silicon metal furnaces operating in China, with an overall furnace opening rate of 51.03%. Construction in the northwest region has increased, but large factories in Xinjiang have failed to resume production as scheduled, resulting in low inventory pressure and multiple price increases. The southwest region has stable construction and sufficient supply, which can temporarily make up for the shortage of boiler shutdowns in Xinjiang. The operating rate of metal silicon continues to rise, and the demand for petroleum coke procurement continues to increase.

The overall market situation of medium to high calcined coke remained stable in August. With the resumption of production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the southwest region, the current production capacity is at a relatively high level. In August, with the release of production capacity in the Yunnan region, there are still expectations of production capacity growth. The supply of electrolytic aluminum continues to increase, leading to an increase in demand for petroleum coke. But towards the end of the month, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the graphite electrode and carburetor market, with a focus on restocking just in need.

Currently, the overall shipment of petroleum coke from Shandong refining is average, and downstream demand still exists. But towards the end of the month, downstream wait-and-see sentiment has increased, with on-demand procurement being the main focus, and some refineries' shipments are under pressure. It is expected that the refining of petroleum coke in the near future will mainly undergo minor fluctuations and consolidation.

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