SunSirs: China BR Market rose in August

The market situation of BR rose in August. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of August 28th, the market price of BR in East China was 11,650 RMB/ton, an increase of 6.49% compared to 10,940 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material butadiene continues to rise, and the cost support for BR continues to strengthen; The construction of downstream tire factories in August has slightly increased compared to July, which requires support for BR; In August, the factory price of two barrels of oil BR was increased. As of August 28th, the factory price of Daqing BR of PetroChina Northeast Sales Company was 11,500 RMB/ton, and the mainstream offer range of domestic BR was between 11,500 and 12,000 RMB/ton.

Supply side: In the middle of the month, Shunding devices such as Qilu, Heze Xinke, and Taiwan Rubber Yubu will be shut down for maintenance. Among them, Heze Xinke and Taiwan Rubber Yubu Shunding devices will be restarted for operation in the latter ten days; The Shandong Yihua BR plant was put into operation at reduced load in late August.

Cost side: The price of butadiene increased significantly in July, and the cost support for BR strengthened significantly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of August 28th, the price of butadiene was 7,618 RMB/ton, an increase of 5.80% from 7,201 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month.

In August, the natural rubber market fluctuated in a narrow range, and as the price difference with BR narrowed, Tianjiao lacked support for BR. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of August 28th, the price was at 11,940 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.58% from 12,010 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month, and the low point during the cycle was 11,764 RMB/ton.

Demand side: The tire operating rate fluctuated slightly in August, with rubber as the main support. It is understood that as of late August 2023, the operating load of all steel tires for rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region is 6.4%; The operating load of semi steel tires for domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.2%.

SunSirs analysts believe that raw material prices have significantly increased, and supply pressure has slightly increased in the later stage. Currently, downstream construction is supporting the rubber industry, and the performance of the BR industry chain in August is stable, with strong support. It is expected that the spot market of BR will mainly operate at a high level in the short term.

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