SunSirs: Crude Oil Decline or Demand Recovery, China Refined Oil Market is Still Supported

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, due to the three consecutive declines in the crude oil market at the beginning of the week, the prices of refined gasoline and diesel have slightly declined, but overall, the prices are still at a high level. As of the 17th, the domestic 92# gasoline price was 8,949.6 RMB/ton, with a slight increase of 0.06% in the middle of the week; The domestic price of 0 # diesel is 7,828.4 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 0.96% in the middle of the month.

Cost side: Three consecutive declines in crude oil at the beginning of the week were bearish for the finished oil market

Starting from this week, crude oil has been declining for three consecutive trading days, with a slight increase on Thursday. As of August 17th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was at $80.39 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was at $84.12 per barrel. Crude oil has been declining for three consecutive trading days. Recently, due to weak economic data in China, coupled with unstable banking in Europe and America, concerns about the global economic growth prospects have put pressure on crude oil, The crude oil price closed continuously lower. However, the decrease in crude oil supply from OPEC and Russia, as well as the improvement in energy demand, have played a supportive role in oil prices. In addition to the optimistic expectation of China's oil demand growth, which continues to boost oil prices, during the summer demand peak season in the northern hemisphere, there are still positive factors for international oil prices. Thursday's closing price rose, and overall, international oil prices are still at a high level. The linkage between the refined oil market and crude oil prices is relatively strong, and the recent high prices in the domestic refined oil market have slightly declined.

Supply side: High operating rate, loose supply side

Recently, the operating load of refineries in China has been around 74%, and the utilization rate of atmospheric and vacuum capacity in refineries in China has risen to the highest level in two years. The operating rate in Shandong has slightly increased, and the overall operating rate has increased to around 67%. The supply of refined oil products in Shandong is relatively loose; The main domestic refineries maintain high load operation and high supply levels. Overall, there has been a slight increase in domestic refined oil supply, which is to some extent negative for the domestic refined oil market prices. Since mid August, the price of gasoline and diesel has not fluctuated significantly.

Demand side: Boosting demand supports oil prices

In terms of gasoline, it is at the peak stage of summer tourism, with frequent private car travel and an expanded radius of travel. The high temperature in summer has increased the use of oil for car air conditioners, resulting in strong demand. The domestic gasoline market trend is relatively strong. In addition, the recent downstream replenishment mentality is still acceptable, and the main external procurement has increased. Refinery inventory has remained low, and various factors support strong willingness of merchants to increase prices. In terms of diesel, on the one hand, boosted by optimistic diesel export profits, domestic diesel export volume remains high, and market resource supply is tightening; On the other hand, since the beginning of autumn, the hot weather has gradually subsided, and the workload of outdoor infrastructure projects and other industries has gradually increased. In addition, with the end of the fishing period, diesel demand has slowly recovered, and an increase in demand still provides support for the domestic diesel market.

In the short term, international oil prices are still in a wide range of fluctuations, but in the past three days, international oil prices have continued to decline, which is negative for the domestic oil market. Overall, international oil prices are in a high range. In terms of domestic supply, the operating rate of local refineries remains high, while the supply is relatively loose. The demand for automotive air conditioning oil remains high, coupled with the approaching peak season of demand for "Jinjiu", some businesses may replenish their inventory in advance, which has supported gasoline demand. In the later stage, the price trend of gasoline market is relatively strong; In terms of diesel, the operating rate of outdoor operations has gradually increased, and the fishing season in coastal areas has gradually ended. The recovery of diesel demand has supported domestic diesel prices, and the diesel market is prone to rise but difficult to fall.

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